A 18-step analysis of the last 6 month in the Crypto Market

2021年5月7日

1. BTC Cycle
2. ETH Cycle triggered by diversification of BTC investors and new theme (DeFi in this case)
3. People by ETH to buy DeFi tokens
4. DeFi Cycle (UNI)
5. People buy DeFi tokens on biggest exchanges
6. Exchange Cycle (BNB)
7. BTC, ETH and DeFi investors convert their gains into Privacy Coins
8. Privacy Cycle (XMR)
9. People by ETH to buy NFT tokens
10. NFT Cycle (THETA)
11. People buy NFT tokens on the biggest exchanges
12. Exchange Cycle (BNB)
13. DeFi + NFT Cylces are cooling down and people are looking for the “next thing”
14. People buy First Mover tokens which are existing for multiple years
15. First Mover Cycle (ETC)
16. NFT, Exchange and First Mover investors convert their gains into Privacy Coins
17. Privacy Cycle (XMR)
18. BTC Cycle starts again

Summary:
Starting out with BTC, the crypto market moves in “Theme Cycles” like DeFi, NFT and First Mover.

Beneficiaries (besides the Theme Cycle Leaders) are protocols which these tokens are built on – most of the time Ethereum.

Gains are often converted into privacy tokens.

As “enabler” to get access to these themes, exchanges always win since the transaction volume is increasing independently if prices spike or break down.

Investment-Theses: BTC, ETH, BNB and XMR are amazing long-term holdings – independent in which “Theme Cycle” we are in.