BTCUSD: Structural Clues Lean Toward Bullish Breakout.

2018年10月2日

BTCUSD update: Price action is going nowhere fast. A consolidation within a consolidation. A tough market for those who do not have the ability to wait. The question is: are there any clues as to which way it will break out?

Just like trending markets do not continue forever, neither do ranging markets. Consolidations are an expression of balance in terms of order flow. Buying and selling pressure is generally equal. The thing is, eventually one side will be wrong. And that natural order flow should provide the momentum for a significant break out.

Are there any clues or hints that may tip off which side is the right side? In terms of price structure, yes. And it comes in the form of a higher low formation.

Higher lows often lead to higher highs during trending markets. In range bound markets, they may not offer the same likelihood because of the high amount of randomness, BUT they often appear before a break out.

In the case of Bitcoin, there is a clear higher low in place at the 6450 area. Below that is the 6350 area which serves as the base of this structure that leans toward the bullish side. In fact the structure was compelling enough for us to take two swing trade long positions. One of them reached their first target, before stopping out on the other half for break even.

As long as this structure (represented by the newly formed bullish trend line) is maintained, we believe the break out has a greater chance of being bullish. We are positioned for that scenario and anticipate a move to at least 7K.

In summary, this is the type of market where brokers and exchanges make the most money from people looking for action every day. There is no action. Impatience and the need for action are expensive emotional conflicts that put people in a financial hole.

When the better market returns, they have to spend their time and effort making money back rather than advancing the growth of their capital. These are the same people who blame the market, the whales and the exchanges for their problems. Meanwhile they do not realize their own mental framework is at fault.

It all begins with having criteria, categorizing trades and waiting for the market to play along. This is what active listening is all about when it comes to adjusting and preparing for the next move. The fact that this is a game of psychology, not charts and numbers is why it is easy to understand the concept of "waiting" but so difficult to practice.

2018年10月4日

ノート

BTCUSD Update: Interesting turn of events as price attempts to push back above 6600. It is still consolidating BUT has formed yet another higher low off of the 6424 low. These are signs of strength that usually precede a break out. We are still long and will continue to hold for our targets. It is just a matter of letting the market play out. By the way, weak markets sell of quickly, they don't linger. A close below the 6300 area is what will signal further weakness, until that happens we can only go with what the structure says which is strength.