Bitcoin (BTC): Rally Fueled by Election Speculation

10月15日

Bitcoin’s recent momentum seems unstoppable, and if it continues at this pace, we could see it challenge the All-Time High soon. Is the rally driven by election speculation? Quite possibly. Former President Donald Trump's growing lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is creating buzz, with decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket reflecting a widening gap between the two candidates. Trump's odds surged 13 points ahead of Harris by October 15. While Larry Fink may downplay the election's impact on the market, we disagree, as we anticipated Trump's increasing odds would begin influencing market sentiment.

The recent surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows supports this view. With $550 million in inflows yesterday alone, the spike suggests that institutional investors, rather than retail, are fueling this rally. Institutional adoption continues to grow steadily, benefiting our spot BTC positions, which are printing gains once more.

Ignoring a brief dip below the trend channel, Bitcoin has consistently respected it, aligning well with the support zone. Currently, BTC is trading slightly above the trend channel, facing resistance from an order block. While this resistance may hold for a while, we anticipate it will eventually break. However, a slight dip before that would present a valuable buying opportunity, which we aim to capitalize on.



Zooming in on the VWAP chart, BTC has reclaimed the 2024 Q1 VAH but is now trading within a 12-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). A pullback here would be ideal for positioning ourselves for the next leg up. With multiple levels aligning, we have two entry points prepared, and a flexible stop-loss strategy to manage the trades in real time.