Where is Bitcoin Bottom?

2018年12月13日

Hi everybody,
First of all, it's true that history repeats itself, but It doesn't mean it will repeat exactly as it was happened before.
In this analysis I presumed that BTC bottom will form like its previous bottom, It doesn't mean this will happen because it's happened before.
It's just speculation.

1. Top to bottom time :
Last bottom was formed about 410 days after ATH. we are still 50 days early so we could see more drop in BTC price.

2. Parabolic start to bottom :
Last time (2013-2014), parabolic was started about 120$ and ended near 200-220$ . It's about 70%-90% raise.
It's hard to tell when BTC parabolic raise was started in 2017, But I assume it was near 1200-1300 so target should be 2400-2600$

3- Weekly RSI :
In 2013, when we saw BTC ATH , RSI was 95 (Maixmum) , when bottom formed between Jan 2015- Sep 2015, we was in middle of IHS of weekly RSI to end of it. BTC weekly RSI reached oversold but It didn't declined to 15-20. It declined to 30.
Now (2018) weekly RSI is reaching 30 but we didn't see any reversal formation (like IHS), so I believe we have another wave of capitulation to 2500$.

This is why I believe bear market has not been ended, and BTC bottom is not 3500$.
BTW I don't see 1k as bottom, 2400-2600$ seems more logical. even 2500-3000$ is more logical than 1500$.