Hi everybody,
First of all, it's true that history repeats itself, but It doesn't mean it will repeat exactly as it was happened before.
In this analysis I presumed that BTC bottom will form like its previous bottom, It doesn't mean this will happen because it's happened before.
It's just speculation.
1. Top to bottom time :
Last bottom was formed about 410 days after ATH. we are still 50 days early so we could see more drop in BTC price.
2. Parabolic start to bottom :
Last time (2013-2014), parabolic was started about 120$ and ended near 200-220$ . It's about 70%-90% raise.
It's hard to tell when BTC parabolic raise was started in 2017, But I assume it was near 1200-1300 so target should be 2400-2600$
3- Weekly RSI :
In 2013, when we saw BTC ATH , RSI was 95 (Maixmum) , when bottom formed between Jan 2015- Sep 2015, we was in middle of IHS of weekly RSI to end of it. BTC weekly RSI reached oversold but It didn't declined to 15-20. It declined to 30.
Now (2018) weekly RSI is reaching 30 but we didn't see any reversal formation (like IHS), so I believe we have another wave of capitulation to 2500$.
This is why I believe bear market has not been ended, and BTC bottom is not 3500$.
BTW I don't see 1k as bottom, 2400-2600$ seems more logical. even 2500-3000$ is more logical than 1500$.
First of all, it's true that history repeats itself, but It doesn't mean it will repeat exactly as it was happened before.
In this analysis I presumed that BTC bottom will form like its previous bottom, It doesn't mean this will happen because it's happened before.
It's just speculation.
1. Top to bottom time :
Last bottom was formed about 410 days after ATH. we are still 50 days early so we could see more drop in BTC price.
2. Parabolic start to bottom :
Last time (2013-2014), parabolic was started about 120$ and ended near 200-220$ . It's about 70%-90% raise.
It's hard to tell when BTC parabolic raise was started in 2017, But I assume it was near 1200-1300 so target should be 2400-2600$
3- Weekly RSI :
In 2013, when we saw BTC ATH , RSI was 95 (Maixmum) , when bottom formed between Jan 2015- Sep 2015, we was in middle of IHS of weekly RSI to end of it. BTC weekly RSI reached oversold but It didn't declined to 15-20. It declined to 30.
Now (2018) weekly RSI is reaching 30 but we didn't see any reversal formation (like IHS), so I believe we have another wave of capitulation to 2500$.
This is why I believe bear market has not been ended, and BTC bottom is not 3500$.
BTW I don't see 1k as bottom, 2400-2600$ seems more logical. even 2500-3000$ is more logical than 1500$.