Bitcoin Weekly | Analysis of MAs + Bear Target ($6k, $3K?)

2020年5月11日

I was doing an analysis of the EMAs and I found multiple clues that are pointing to a price drop.

The most important factor right now to consider is that this week's peak is lower than last week, meaning a lower high.

The last volume bar is really strong and bigger than the previous six weeks. Pressure is coming from the sell/bear side.

In November and December 2019, EMA100 held as support, this lead to prices moving higher and peaking at $10,500 in February 2020.

Since this peak in February is a lower high compared to the peak hit back in June 2019, the next drop was sure to break EMA100 and it did... This drop took BTCUSD all the way down to $3850.

Now, Bitcoin prices are about to drop again but this time EMA100 isn't the relevant level, BTCUSD is aiming at MA200 (black line), based on the study of the behavior of BTCUSDs price around these lines (Moving Averages).


How Far Down Can Bitcoin Go?

Now, let's say that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) does drop, how far down do we think it can go?

Based on technicals, we remain bullish as long as prices are trading above EMA10/50, and prices are going up... On a break of EMA50 (Bitcoin moving and closing below $7800/$7900), we look for the $5800-$6200 price range first.

Only if this support range breaks down, $5800-$6200, we can see lower prices for Bitcoin.


My Personal Prediciton

To keep it simple, I believe that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) can easily break below $6,000 and go much lower on the next bearish wave, but, ultimately it will recover with massive force and strength.

Maybe I stood around these bears/bear market for way too long... But I was thinking as possible the low 3ks.

What's your take?

Share with us in the comments section below!
Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.