BTC - to be or not to be?

アップデート済

I haven`t posted any ideas recently since the markets were relatively quiet. However, now I feel we are at a very interesting point, at least from the TA point of view. Of course we are looking at the BTC price, since it still is the main driver of the entire crypto-market.

As we can see on the daily chart, the price is approaching the upper limit of the downtrend channel for the first time since more than a month ago (the 6th of January), while reaching the mid level of the long term uptrend channel. We can also see this was a "battleground" level just before the last dip, when the 0.618 Fib level was tested multiple times before. When we look at the indicators, we can see the RSI is slightly bullish while the ADX and the DIs are leveled (meaning no trend present, just a 50-50 chance of going either way. Volume is not the highest however is not very low either so the same "wait and see" approach. The market depth, again is 50-50.

All those signs point to an equilibrium level, almost the same like a month ago, level where the price lingered for more than a week, just before taking the plunge down to $6000.
The news are also pretty "quiet" with no major influencers on neither side (FUDs or Hypes).

In other words, now BTC and the entire crypto-market along with it is taking its breath after a very agitated period of two months of decline. What will follow, is anybody`s guess; with no major developments either from a technical point of view (like a major technological breakthrough that would confirm BTC is back in business as a currency / payment mean) or from regulatory point of view (like major acceptance / bans etc.) we can expect a sideways movement at least of BTC which in turn might prove as a favorable period for quick trades in the alts world.

Good luck all and thanks for watching.

PS.: Any ideas, comments, etc. are always welcome.

ノート

One week later the idea of "cool-down" proved to be correct. BTC stabilized just a bit under the 0.618 Fib level and we can see the 30 EMA curbing up getting ready to meet the 50 SMA. ADX continued to decline confirming this consolidation.
On the more fundamental side, the upcoming SigWit implementation which will open the door for the Lightning Network might need a few days / weeks to confirm the improved results. So, if successful, this might open the upside for BTC. Still we need more time to confirm the new trend which would become reality only after a breakout to the upside of the medium term down trend that started mid December.
Here is the "picture" as well:

ノート

BTC has some encouraging signs: the price just broke above the upper limit of the 3 months down trend and more important, the 30 EMA just touched the 50 SMA. This is a very important cross-road, since it comes in March, just before the "usual" April - May bull runs. Let`s see if this year the history repeats itself: