So, the Elliott count seems pretty straightforward here, and that's a (price) relief !
We are currently somewhere between the end of a yellow wave 3 and beginning of wave 4. With a little tweaking of the purple channel in play since November 23rd, we can expect the yellow wave 5 to test and be rejected @4000 tomorrow. This would make a local top, marking the end of the purple wave 5 of an impulse which started at yearly low.
Therefore, we should be in for a correction with purple ABC , expecting a retracement at least towards 0.5 fibonacci to 3600ish, probably even lower to 3400ish, but who knows...
One thing is sure : once we get rejected around 4000 with a clean completion of yellow wave 5, I'm shorting BTC and waiting for purple B wave to decide a target. After that, I'm not even trying to forecast the damn tricky price action. Can't believe we're going back up before testing new yearly lows though...
Any different idea ? I'm always willing to learn !
We are currently somewhere between the end of a yellow wave 3 and beginning of wave 4. With a little tweaking of the purple channel in play since November 23rd, we can expect the yellow wave 5 to test and be rejected @4000 tomorrow. This would make a local top, marking the end of the purple wave 5 of an impulse which started at yearly low.
Therefore, we should be in for a correction with purple ABC , expecting a retracement at least towards 0.5 fibonacci to 3600ish, probably even lower to 3400ish, but who knows...
One thing is sure : once we get rejected around 4000 with a clean completion of yellow wave 5, I'm shorting BTC and waiting for purple B wave to decide a target. After that, I'm not even trying to forecast the damn tricky price action. Can't believe we're going back up before testing new yearly lows though...
Any different idea ? I'm always willing to learn !
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We were unfortunately not riding a fifth wave, but the third subwave of an extended third wave, the most common pattern one can expect in an impulse.
We actually reached the end of that third subwave as expected, leading to a correction for that subwave only. Tight management of position would still lead to a -200$ move on price, but much less than expected initially.
Bottom line for my future : never call the end of a trend unless it has obviously ended, and just scalp whatever is left of the retracement...