Trump Victory Drives BTC/USD to New Highs

11月6日

Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election, announced by Fox News, has unleashed strong volatility in the financial markets, with a notable boost for Bitcoin (BTC/USD). The value of the cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high, surpassing $74,000, up 5.81%. The uncertainty generated by Trump's victory, combined with the possibility of protectionist policies and further deregulation, has fueled the appetite for safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin.

In the current trading day, the value of Bitcoin experienced a 13.05% rise, reaching $75,378.21, after an uptrend that began on September 6. Currently, the RSI (relative strength index) is at 65.37%, suggesting that the price could continue its advance towards $80,000.

Wall Street Volatility and Monetary Policy Expectations
The election result has elevated volatility in financial markets. The VIX index, which measures volatility on Wall Street, surpassed 21 points, marking the second highest level of the year. Investors are taking precautions as they await final confirmation of Trump's victory and the composition of Congress, which could trigger a change in economic policies and increase volatility in the short term.

In fixed income markets, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch volatility index rose above 130 points, a level not seen since 2023. This increase in volatility comes in parallel with the expectation of the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where a 25 basis point interest rate cut is expected. However, recent macroeconomic data suggests that the Fed may opt for a less accommodative stance, especially if Trump's fiscal policies boost government spending.

Bitcoin as a Value Haven
With increasing volatility in equity and fixed income markets, coupled with the prospect of expansionary and protectionist fiscal policy under the Trump presidency, Bitcoin is positioning itself as an attractive safe haven asset. Investors are looking to protect their portfolios against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and potential depreciation of other currencies. As the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin is perceived, like gold, as a store of value in the face of global economic instability.

Bitcoin and Global Market Projections
Although both Trump and his Kamala in the election would have implemented expansionary fiscal policies, a Trump victory could generate more volatility and inflationism, favoring assets such as Bitcoin. In addition, the currency market, particularly the euro/dollar, has shown levels of volatility not seen since Brexit, reflecting the magnitude of uncertainty generated by the election results. As the results are confirmed and the Fed makes interest rate decisions, markets will closely monitor any adjustments in monetary policy that may influence appetite for Bitcoin and other safe-haven assets in a highly volatile environment. A strong Trump administration is likely to favor the oil lobbies and the big Winner of all this election is clearly Elon Musk, an entrepreneur highly focused on protectionism to benefit his companies and government investment in entities such as TESLA or SpaceX, or X as a big driver of Republican protectionist propaganda. The great affected will possibly be the cosmogony of the policies related to trade with Mexico as a great producer of satellite companies of Chinese origin.

If the Republican Party had lost either of the two chambers, the strategists of the Democratic Party will have to study how to work with a majority Republican government in both chambers. Now the days are ahead for the next president's inauguration on January 20, where everything could happen on a socio-political level, given that this has been one of the most polarized elections in the history of the United States. Trump could have a significant impact on Europe, especially in areas such as economics, security and foreign policy. Trump's protectionist policy could affect European exports and increase pressure on the EU to diversify its markets. In addition, a possible U.S. distancing from NATO would require Europe to take on greater defense responsibilities, while a more conciliatory stance by Trump towards Russia could alter the geopolitical balance. On the environmental front, a US exit from the Paris Agreement would hamper the global fight against climate change, although it would also provide Europe with the opportunity to lead in renewable energies.

Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades






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