Bitcoin is in a Bear market

2022年1月31日

There has been many confusions in the markets. People do not know whether the top is already in or not. If it is the top of this cycle, it is unlike the previous two cycles and will confuse many people. Many influencers are also calling for a "lengthening cycle" to hold the bull market narrative which is complete garbage nonsense. Investors and analysts have looked at several indicators and on-chain analysts to support their argument whether we are in a bull or bear market while some people are simply biased to see only what they want to see. My unbiased outlook for the market is that we have entered a bear market. If we observe what bitcoin has done for the past year simply ping ponging from 30k to 60k and by eoy investors did not make meaningful return. One on-chain data shows the 1 year hodl wave shows what the majority of holders are doing. In a nutshell, when the majorities hold, it is an indication of a bottom and when they sell, it indicates a top, distribution, and will enter a bear market. If we observe the data from lookintobitcoin.com, the hodl wave was at the lowest when we were at 60k-69k meaning it was the top for this cycle unfortunately. Once the hodl wave forms a straight line and enter an accumulation period again, just like what we did in 2019, that would be the sign of a bottom and hopefully will have a major rally either after the next halving or so. Until then, we won't see significant moves for the next 2 years or so. I am simply trying to show people for what the market is actually doing and not sticking to my biases.

also note, the returns are getting smaller so it will be at most 5x for the next major rally.

2022年1月31日

ノート

the arrow is misplaced as a mistake idk how to fix it lol