Bitcoin EW guess (not analysis)

Broke .618 of the last bearish structure, must be bull market now.

If this were a double combo correction (WXY), then we've had:

0W to 6k
WX to 11.7k

Inside 0W, we had an ABC correction, where the A was another ABC and the C was an impulsive 12345.

Inside WX, we had a truncated 5th wave in an impulsive 12345. --> we're currently notably less bullish than then.

Now, are we in a bull or bear market? A bull market inside a bear market?

In other words, is the drop from 11.7k to 6.5k the A of ABC inside XY, or is it the ABC in its totality? Both are possible.

We know that we've had an impulsive 12345 at its end at the moment. A drop from here will be just as the drop from 2014 (from 200D SMA).

We could easily break some supports & do an impulsive 12345 down to 2.5k.

I still think this is likely because we've had an ABC down from 11.7 to 6.5 but no impulsive wave.

Also, I can't believe 100% gains in two weeks among some notable useless tokens if it were the bottom.

In the end, however, the whales have the final words.

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will whales attack (not counting the pump an hour ago)?

(temp oversold)

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the 50D MA level is very interesting:

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two bitcoin scenarios:

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closeup of the bullish scenario

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closeup of the bearish

slightly different from the earlier post because we have not a short-term reversal that helps us measure better (originally was measured with prior price movements)

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the second one should say scenario 2

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oho, looks like the bullish scenario?!

unless it's more bearish than I thought?

H&S is avoided. don't know about the power of the double top (obviously not as powerful as a valid H&S)

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ABC or 12345?