The Show Goes On, Lucky 7's Part III - BITCOIN! (BTC)
アップデート済
Friends, Traders, Everyone...
This has been, quite the few weeks for Crypto and Bitcoin. I see many people saying, what has happened recently is manipulation. They say things like, it was just a consensus pump. It's just manipulation.
This can always be said for this LOW LIQUIDITY market. It is easy for big players to push price around, and algorithmic driven bots have hair triggers, almost as emotional as many traders in this space themselves.
While these people sit on the sidelines calling foul at missed moves, you have to be on top of your game, just doing you. At the end of the day, only the CHARTS can be trusted to give the truth. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is shown on the chart - whales can hide behind anything, but the charts do not lie! So, manipulation is the wrong mindset to have - maybe it's there, maybe its not - and we all know deep down, of course it is. You have the Bitmex bears, players like Bitman, and don't get started on the Bitfinex/Tether drama.
The only thing WE can do, is trust our charts, and have faith in ourselves as traders with GOOD STOP LOSS and DISCIPLINE to keep us profitable. Remember all of this and take what I am saying to heart - blaming manipulation will not get you far. Take ADVANTAGE of it, trust yourSELF and your CHARTS.
Enough of that! On to the charts. In my last analysis shown below, we called for a BIG retracement on Bitcoin - now I ask if this was simply a fat finger, WHY are some analysts able to see these things coming?! All manipulation falls victim to ONE RULE - the charts! We entered the 0.618 Fib Time Zone from the last bull run, and sure enough, BOOM! A massive 62% retracement. Now, we fell back below the fib channel which is now going to act as resistance. This is a good thing - we have two simple paths. We can retrace further, down back to the fib retracements - 62-79% area ($5800-$6400 area) which is a PERFECT BUY. Or, we may simply have ALREADY completed this retracement - if scenario #2 is the case, this market is VERY BULLISH, as the drop was bought up fast!
Now, it's up to you to be the judge. Are we in a BULL MARKET, or has this all simply been tomfoolery. I cannot say for sure, all I can say is FIBONACCI has shown none of this is COINCIDENCE.
You must decide for yourself, I can only show you what I SEE in the chart. Now, I anticipate either we will see another, less violent drop below 7k to retest a retracement (look for buys) or simply, we will gather strength and break into the next fib channel above. (about $7600 area at time of posting). So, if you are feeling good, you're either long already, or long from where we are now. Either way, I will not long again HERE. I had long orders which filled, staggered under 7k down to $6400. For now, I will have a tight stop on those, at $6900. We can then look for another breakout near our LUCKY 7 target - $7777. With an ultimate target - of ABOVE 9k. There, we can reassess and judge our chances to test the big boy psychological resistance at 10k
As always, use your head, be safe, trust your charts, and above all, be DISCIPLINED in all you do.
Good luck traders!
Previous analyses:
This has been, quite the few weeks for Crypto and Bitcoin. I see many people saying, what has happened recently is manipulation. They say things like, it was just a consensus pump. It's just manipulation.
This can always be said for this LOW LIQUIDITY market. It is easy for big players to push price around, and algorithmic driven bots have hair triggers, almost as emotional as many traders in this space themselves.
While these people sit on the sidelines calling foul at missed moves, you have to be on top of your game, just doing you. At the end of the day, only the CHARTS can be trusted to give the truth. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is shown on the chart - whales can hide behind anything, but the charts do not lie! So, manipulation is the wrong mindset to have - maybe it's there, maybe its not - and we all know deep down, of course it is. You have the Bitmex bears, players like Bitman, and don't get started on the Bitfinex/Tether drama.
The only thing WE can do, is trust our charts, and have faith in ourselves as traders with GOOD STOP LOSS and DISCIPLINE to keep us profitable. Remember all of this and take what I am saying to heart - blaming manipulation will not get you far. Take ADVANTAGE of it, trust yourSELF and your CHARTS.
Enough of that! On to the charts. In my last analysis shown below, we called for a BIG retracement on Bitcoin - now I ask if this was simply a fat finger, WHY are some analysts able to see these things coming?! All manipulation falls victim to ONE RULE - the charts! We entered the 0.618 Fib Time Zone from the last bull run, and sure enough, BOOM! A massive 62% retracement. Now, we fell back below the fib channel which is now going to act as resistance. This is a good thing - we have two simple paths. We can retrace further, down back to the fib retracements - 62-79% area ($5800-$6400 area) which is a PERFECT BUY. Or, we may simply have ALREADY completed this retracement - if scenario #2 is the case, this market is VERY BULLISH, as the drop was bought up fast!
Now, it's up to you to be the judge. Are we in a BULL MARKET, or has this all simply been tomfoolery. I cannot say for sure, all I can say is FIBONACCI has shown none of this is COINCIDENCE.
You must decide for yourself, I can only show you what I SEE in the chart. Now, I anticipate either we will see another, less violent drop below 7k to retest a retracement (look for buys) or simply, we will gather strength and break into the next fib channel above. (about $7600 area at time of posting). So, if you are feeling good, you're either long already, or long from where we are now. Either way, I will not long again HERE. I had long orders which filled, staggered under 7k down to $6400. For now, I will have a tight stop on those, at $6900. We can then look for another breakout near our LUCKY 7 target - $7777. With an ultimate target - of ABOVE 9k. There, we can reassess and judge our chances to test the big boy psychological resistance at 10k
As always, use your head, be safe, trust your charts, and above all, be DISCIPLINED in all you do.
Good luck traders!
Previous analyses:
ノート
Meant Bitmain.. I think bitman is a super hero :Dトレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達
Target 1 hit =)Boy, that was quick.
トレード稼働中
Took some profits at target 1 but I would like to see this continue. mid 8k is going to be a critical level to find out if bulls are really about that lifeノート
Something I feel obligated to point out here, is that there are a lot of people that anticipate a rejection from the $8400 area.I think things now cannot really be compared to last July. Not only were we in a fresh bear market at that time, but consider this. Normally, I am not a fan of indicators at all. But, the 200 day moving average, is a big deal. Last time, it acted as major resistance on the daily. Today, we are not staring down this important resistance. We broke it weeks ago. So, at least we don't have that to worry about =)
ノート
This is getting quite interesting, bitcoin fighting now to establish channel support 
ノート
Bitcoin is trying to make a decision here.ノート
hm, another 62% retrace? a break of 7900 from here would indicate a test of 8500...ノート
interesting
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