BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Wave 3 Of 5. Where Is Wave 4?

2017年8月7日

BTCUSD Update: Continuing to push all time highs now almost a week after the hard fork. There are no resistance levels except for psychological whole numbers like 3500. As strong as it is, nothing goes up in a straight line, it will retrace. When exactly? There is no way to tell, but we can get an idea as to where it can retrace to.

The closest support level is the minor support at 3076 (.382 of 2617 low) which would be the first place to look for a retrace to. If this level is taken out, that would signal further weakness and possibly lead to a broader retracement or consolidation.

Just below that level is the 3003 previous all time high which should now act as a support. A retrace to this level is more likely to produce a bullish reversal and a level I intend to watch closely. A break below that will open the possibility to a deeper retrace back to the trend support at 2792 (.382 of recent bullish swing). If that level is broken, that would signal a broader consolidation is in play and call for more conservative strategies.

These support levels fit very well into the Elliot Wave landscape which clearly indicates that we are in a larger degree Wave 5. Within this Wave 5, a subdegree Wave 3 is upon completion which increases the probability of a subdegree Wave 4. In terms of price structure, a subdegree Wave 4 completion makes sense at the 3076 or 3003 support levels. At that point it would be reasonable to expect a subwave 5 to complete the broader Wave 5.

Some less experienced participants don't seem to understand that these evaluations are not predictions. They explain possible scenarios to be prepared for IF they happen. This is how professionals are able to anticipate because they already have a plan if the proposed scenario appears. While the inexperienced trader has no plan, and relies on emotion to guide their decision making. BTC may never pull back to 3003, but if it does, we know what to do, and if the level breaks, we know what to do also.

In summary, the BTC market has more upside potential, but is likely to retrace to the minor support levels before continuing to new all time highs. Once the subdegree wave 4 completes, the next Wave 5 can take this market beyond 4000 in my opinion which implies strength for all the altcoins as well. Keep in mind risk is something we must always manage as traders, and that is why I do not blindly buy into new highs. Buying opportunities will materialize, it is all a matter of patience.

Comments and questions welcome.