Bitcoin - Everything Is Gonna Be Alright
Don't worry, about a thing. Every little thing gonna be alright.
When Bitcoin is jamming and making all time highs I get lots of messages like "Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin". When we start to correct these messages stop and they start to turn to "how low is this gonna go"
If you are buying Bitcoin now you are playing the 2026 game. If you have done your research and have decided you believe in Bitcoin enough to buy the best thing you can do is buy over time and come back in 2026.
That can be hard so the next best thing is to ZOOM OUT. Stop looking at the daily price or a weekly chart, look at the monthly chart, this is a long game.
I made this chart in hopes of helping my new friends HODL to the finish line. I started buying Bitcoin at $1000 in 2013 and it promptly dropped and continued dropping all the way to under $200 and stayed in this range for years. I never sold a single satoshi and continued to buy over time. This is how this game is played.
Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a financial life boat designed to protect you from the coming flood of inflation due to the poor monetary policy of the dollar. They say there is little to no inflation but just look at the price of lumber or the price of gas or milk over time. There is inflation and it will only get worse.
The first vertical green line is 12 months out from the halving, that would match the shortest bull run we had. That bull run went 113x, if we take a conservative estimate and say we are only going to go 15x from the bottom that still takes us to 126K by the end of May 2021.
The second vertical green line is 17 months out from the halving, that would match the longest bull run we had. That bull run was the second and only went 42x, if we go 42x again that takes us to around 340K by the end of October 2021.
Of course past performance does not indicate future performance but in the case of Bitcoin these post halving runs have been fairly consistent.
Here are a few things you can keep in mind to help you sleep at night:
- During the 2015-2017 Bitcoin bull market there were 9 significant corrections that averaged a 37% decline from high to low and 14 weeks from one ATH to the next ATH. This is only about our 4th significant correction this run. These are normal.
- The longest streak of green monthly candles in Bitcoin history is 6 months, we just finished a 6 month streak, we need a little cool off period, a few red candles are possible and healthy after this many green monthly candles.
- These corrections remove leverage from the market and shake out the weak hands who sell into the stronger hands giving us the base we need to move higher.
- If we are going to reach the stock to flow targets (medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25) of 100-300K+ we need these corrections to make a healthy market.
- Tops are marked by high monthly RSI (>96) and typically the largest monthly candle of the run. We are currently correcting on declining volume and some of the smallest candles of the run, not likely topping candles.
So how do I sell the top? The simple answer is don't - Why would you want to trade the worlds hardest asset for an asset that is constantly declining in value (except maybe to buy real estate). If you want to take value off the table the best thing to do is to borrow against your Bitcoin which is a non taxable event.
If you do feel you need to sell Glassnode on chain analytics have been very good at predicting when we are close to a top insights.glassnode.com/tag/newsletter/
Anyway just decide how much you are willing to risk and buy over time and hold for 5 years - Everything's Gonna Be Alright
When Bitcoin is jamming and making all time highs I get lots of messages like "Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin". When we start to correct these messages stop and they start to turn to "how low is this gonna go"
If you are buying Bitcoin now you are playing the 2026 game. If you have done your research and have decided you believe in Bitcoin enough to buy the best thing you can do is buy over time and come back in 2026.
That can be hard so the next best thing is to ZOOM OUT. Stop looking at the daily price or a weekly chart, look at the monthly chart, this is a long game.
I made this chart in hopes of helping my new friends HODL to the finish line. I started buying Bitcoin at $1000 in 2013 and it promptly dropped and continued dropping all the way to under $200 and stayed in this range for years. I never sold a single satoshi and continued to buy over time. This is how this game is played.
Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a financial life boat designed to protect you from the coming flood of inflation due to the poor monetary policy of the dollar. They say there is little to no inflation but just look at the price of lumber or the price of gas or milk over time. There is inflation and it will only get worse.
The first vertical green line is 12 months out from the halving, that would match the shortest bull run we had. That bull run went 113x, if we take a conservative estimate and say we are only going to go 15x from the bottom that still takes us to 126K by the end of May 2021.
The second vertical green line is 17 months out from the halving, that would match the longest bull run we had. That bull run was the second and only went 42x, if we go 42x again that takes us to around 340K by the end of October 2021.
Of course past performance does not indicate future performance but in the case of Bitcoin these post halving runs have been fairly consistent.
Here are a few things you can keep in mind to help you sleep at night:
- During the 2015-2017 Bitcoin bull market there were 9 significant corrections that averaged a 37% decline from high to low and 14 weeks from one ATH to the next ATH. This is only about our 4th significant correction this run. These are normal.
- The longest streak of green monthly candles in Bitcoin history is 6 months, we just finished a 6 month streak, we need a little cool off period, a few red candles are possible and healthy after this many green monthly candles.
- These corrections remove leverage from the market and shake out the weak hands who sell into the stronger hands giving us the base we need to move higher.
- If we are going to reach the stock to flow targets (medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25) of 100-300K+ we need these corrections to make a healthy market.
- Tops are marked by high monthly RSI (>96) and typically the largest monthly candle of the run. We are currently correcting on declining volume and some of the smallest candles of the run, not likely topping candles.
So how do I sell the top? The simple answer is don't - Why would you want to trade the worlds hardest asset for an asset that is constantly declining in value (except maybe to buy real estate). If you want to take value off the table the best thing to do is to borrow against your Bitcoin which is a non taxable event.
If you do feel you need to sell Glassnode on chain analytics have been very good at predicting when we are close to a top insights.glassnode.com/tag/newsletter/
Anyway just decide how much you are willing to risk and buy over time and hold for 5 years - Everything's Gonna Be Alright
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