Bitcoin Price Weakening or Consolidating? Bitstamp BTC/USD 1HR
During the last three days, price tested and re-tested support at $400 and finally reversed significantly.
More precisely, RSI has weakened, MACD has confirmed a bearish cross on the 14th, and the Stochastic has remained indecisive for more than 8 hours.
These indications are not catalytic yet as they mostly reveal that price has entered another sideways / consolidation phase before the next major move.
Nevertheless, our only concern is that each and every new spike high, has been accompanied by a negative divergence in Price / Buying Volume.
On the long side: Both MACD and Stochastic must start to show signs of strength in order to support a reversal above the 20MA ($391). This will increase the odds for retesting resistance at the Upper 200MA BB at 412.
On the short side: Price must not break the Middle 200MA BB support area at $374-$382, as this will increase the odds for revisiting the Lower 200MA BB at $337.
Overall: Mostly a weakening picture that signifies a temporary consolidation phase.
Outcome Probabilities:
Long: Above $391 if accompanied by spike in volume – Price Target $414 | Probability: 30%
Neutral: Price Range $376-$390 | Probability: 50%
Short: On a break with conviction below $374 - Price Target $337 | Probability: 20%
Our Stance: Since the 13th of October, we have been very conservative regarding long exposure, as internals have not been convincing.
More precisely, RSI has weakened, MACD has confirmed a bearish cross on the 14th, and the Stochastic has remained indecisive for more than 8 hours.
These indications are not catalytic yet as they mostly reveal that price has entered another sideways / consolidation phase before the next major move.
Nevertheless, our only concern is that each and every new spike high, has been accompanied by a negative divergence in Price / Buying Volume.
On the long side: Both MACD and Stochastic must start to show signs of strength in order to support a reversal above the 20MA ($391). This will increase the odds for retesting resistance at the Upper 200MA BB at 412.
On the short side: Price must not break the Middle 200MA BB support area at $374-$382, as this will increase the odds for revisiting the Lower 200MA BB at $337.
Overall: Mostly a weakening picture that signifies a temporary consolidation phase.
Outcome Probabilities:
Long: Above $391 if accompanied by spike in volume – Price Target $414 | Probability: 30%
Neutral: Price Range $376-$390 | Probability: 50%
Short: On a break with conviction below $374 - Price Target $337 | Probability: 20%
Our Stance: Since the 13th of October, we have been very conservative regarding long exposure, as internals have not been convincing.
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