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Bitcoin Long Term Trend Analysis.. A near term clue?

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This chart illustrates long term extrapolation of the log chart trend for Bitcoin, with key Arc trends which could hold a clue to the near term future and longer term trend.

In Summary there has been 4 periods of 'mean' bullish growth / consolidation in the lower arc range with one period of hype and one period of bear market.

Based on this historical trend, any break of price above the white line pushing toward the pink average arc line has either resulted in a slam back down to the yellow support range or blasted off into the hype territory.

This would therefore suggest that the top of the current move is likely to be somewhere around or just above 2k, however a break of this and a repeat of the previous moves could see bitcoin having the potential to make a push towards max $20 - 30k over the course of a year, with the current move simply being the start. i.e. 2k breaks and we could see much, much higher after which a long term bear / consol period would ensue.

Pressing into 2020 we would likely resume the moves proceeding the 2016 halvening around 4-10k and quite possibly another hype phase, again following it, much higher towards 70k.

While this is an extrapolation of a back trend looking towards forward price discovery,the market conditions fit and hey... its all i have to work with.

As an investor it would appear there could be great gains to be made both based on the supply halvening fundamentals and increased demand. The yellow line as a floor indicator for a break of long term trend will be key to my bag holding decision making.
Within this trend, even an investment at 2k (should it be the top), may yield a return of c.5x based on this trend around 2020.

As a trader, the current market condition suggests a real make or break as to wether we enter a short term shorting opportunity or a really awesome period of volitility for two periods.

Whilst this is not financial advice and is only evidence of a clear trend it represents to me awesome opportunities and exciting times ahead both in the short and long term.

Hope you found this of some use.

ノート

More evidence for us being either at the top of the current move, or at the foot of a huge run up in my mind came with bitcoin getting caught up in the global hack towards the end of this week.

I see one of two scenarios playing out;

- a 'china bans bitcoin' event where governments wage war on crypto. This will probably cause a run off in price similar to that at the start of this year

- a realisation that bitcoin is not going to be going away.. governments and insitiutions will have to buy bitcoin as insurance against these hacking events which are going to occur regardless of wether they try to ban bitcoin, (which of corse they can't) and therefore it will be necessary to be held as an insurance to bail out.

As they say, any publicity is good publicity and I would imagine that the second senario described will inevitablycause the next hype style period at some.. the question is will the price have a shock before it occurs.

ノート

i think its fair to say we have gone parabolic. Both retail and institutional investors have entered the market in their different capacities. We may re test this breakout support again in the short run, but it looks like major hype/buuble 3.0 has commenced.

Good luck all. Please manage your risk, in my view the best strategy is a phased cash out / re entry as an investor post bubble. Do not risk everything - you cannot go bust taking profit.

ノート

Click the chart for the commentary