Bitcoin Revesring Off Fake Out Zone?

2021年3月14日

Yes new all time highs, but after you get over all the hype and hoopla, you cannot ignore the highly vulnerable price area where Bitcoin is now trying to reverse. Was this most recent leg off of the 46K area a Wave C of a corrective B? IF price action confirms this, most traders and investors (especially those who just bought into this) are blind to the magnitude of the risk they now face.

I'm not bearish on Bitcoin but I don't like buying into highs or breakouts. My short term oriented style and strategy maintains a focus on conservative and high probability setups that are usually infrequent and develop near support levels. (In my previous article I shared such a trade idea).

The 58,200 to 62,100 range (blue box) is a reversal zone. This is where price is MOST vulnerable to faking out. IF tomorrow's candle takes out today's candle low, that would be a new sell signal off of a location where such a scenario is highly probable.

The next support is around 50K. If I am going to look for a new swing trade long, I would be most interested in setups that unfold there.

As far as Elliott Wave goes: The first sell off from 57K could be the start of a broad corrective move or a Wave 4. These are very tricky and can even make a new high (like we see now) before they become obvious. If the swing from 57K to 45K was Wave A, this current run from 45K to 61K may be Wave B (typically 3 legs which are now clear in the formation). Confirmation will be in place if the 50K support is taken out. If a Wave C unfolds from here, it can take price back to 37K potentially over the next few weeks.

Elliott Wave is very subjective and serves best as a basic road map. When scenarios do not confirm, adjustments to wave counts are necessary so it is important not to get stuck on any one idea. So why bother with it? Because there are times when wave counts are clear and there is no question as to where price is likely going next (like a transition from Wave 4 to 5).

Over the previous week someone shared a pic of a Bitcoin ad that appeared in a London subway station. It said "now" is the time to buy bitcoin. In the financial markets, when something is obvious, often the best thing to do is the opposite. This is a function of sentiment and implies that the majority of the investing population that was going to buy, has bought. I don't know of a way to accurately measure this, BUT this contrarian signal is nothing new. There was an old saying that when the shoe shine boy is giving out stock tips, it is time to sell. Different era, same idea. Often things are most obvious and people are most euphoric at a peak. In other words, there is no one left to buy (figuratively speaking). Just something to think about.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you found it helpful.