BTC analysis is really not that complicated.

2019年12月21日

We are clearly in a bear trend, until if/when we start to get some higher highs, and higher lows again.

That's not to say there aren't opportunities to make money in this bear trend even if like me, you can't short it, but make no mistake about it, BTC is in a bear trend, and until we see a reversal of lower lows, and lower highs, and it gets confirmed with multiple different ones, this analysis holds true.

2019年12月21日

ノート

3200 is on the table, and unless this bear trend reverses. I am still bullish above that though, unless it breaks down below the 200 Weekly MA.

2020年1月30日

ノート

This looks like another lower high at this point.

2020年1月30日

ノート

2020年1月30日

ノート

2020年2月10日

ノート

I am wrong about pretty much everything except this (oh and my calls on TSLA back when it was at about 300/share.)

This is still a lower high, until if/when it goes above 10523.

If it breaks that level, its not in an official downtrend any more. That doesn't mean it's in an uptrend yet (we would need a higher low, and another higher high for that to be confirmed)

At this point though, this is still a lower high, and just a continuation of the downtrend.

2020年2月12日

ノート

We are still technically at a lower high:



Will we break it? If so the downtrend is officially broken.

It doesn't mean an uptrend is confirmed, we would need a higher low, and then another higher high, before that is confirmed.

But an official higher high would break the official downtrend we have been in the past months.

2020年2月13日

ノート

This is still a lower high. It needs to break 10540 to become a higher high.

Will it break the downtrend? Or are we still in it?

2020年2月15日

ノート

We did not break 10540. This is still officially a downtrend.

2020年3月11日

ノート

There are two (kinda four, but they are basically the same two) questions here.

1) will we have another lower low (AKA a continuation of the downtrend)? And conversely, will we have a higher low and partial break of the downtrend? (It would need a higher high for confirmation.)

And

2) Can we achieve a real higher high (again another partial break of the down trend, needing confirmation with a higher low)? Or was that last high truly another lower high? Technically speaking it is, since it just barely did not get above the last one.

2020年5月15日

ノート

It's still really not that complicated. It's still an active downtrend, until that in invalidated.

2020年7月26日

ノート

Can BTC finally break out of the down trend?



It needs to break 10522.51 to finally achieve a new higher high.

2020年7月26日

ノート

Oops, didn't have my arrows and bubbles placed quite right. Here it is corrected:

2020年7月28日

ノート

Well would you look at that. The bulls finally did it.

Does this mean we are now in an up trend again? No. We will need it to establish a new higher low, and then another new higher high for that to occur.

But this does mean we are not in an official down trend any more.

2020年7月28日

ノート