September is coming to an end with Monthly Candle exhibiting approximately 8% gain from its open (at the time of writing). However, PA is showing some weakening factors that could ruin the party. Let's quickly dive in.
1. SIGNS OF EXHAUSTION ON 1D CHART
As much as the hype of increasing Global Liquidity, Bitcoin is clearly showing fatigued price action (PA) on HTF:
Weakening spot volume: 6 days of declining trading volume on the daily
Multiple upper and lower wicks: Both late longs and aggressive (early) shorts got taken out intraday
Narrow daily candle open/close: Overall sentiment is somewhat ambiguous
Slow trending upward: Lack of clear break out to the upside, enhancing the probability of fractal top at 62k - 65k level
2. FRACTAL UNTAPPED DOWNSIDE LIQUIDITY ON 4H CHART
As much as highly anticipated turquoise-coloured path to play out for hopiums, huge spot buyers need step in NOW to push the price higher. Despite that, bidders have been doing the complete opposite for the last 6 days. As mentioned in our previous article, the current run-up from 52k til now is mainly driven by Futures positions.
So what do we expect from here?
A fractal top: At 62k - 65k level is expected
The degree of downside PA: will be determined by the spot buyers at some critical lower price levels
So far, potential downside magnet: Is the fractal untapped liquidity on LTF (shown as grey boxes on the above chart)
Levels to watch: 57.5k - 58k and 55.5k - 56k (fractal untapped liquidity on LTF)
Sufficient amount of spot bidders (NOT Futures bidders) need to step in at these "levels to watch" in order to maintain HLs/HHs PA on HTF (depicted as orange-coloured path). This also means that 62k - 65k level has a high probability to become Flip Zone – resistance becomes support (As mentioned on Our last article).
Otherwise, 62k - 65k level is just another Liquidity Grab on HTF for another downside expansion to sub 50k.