Before we go up, down we go... but why?

2018年9月24日

For those that are really bullish, I am sorry but we are not getting out of this anytime soon. SEC has once again delayed it's decision on the Bitcoin ETF.'"The US regulatory agency was set to make a ruling by September 30th, but could now wait as long as late December to make a final decision." This is not really why I think we have to wait, but let me try to help justify this through some rational thoughts.

This only tells me 2 things:

1. The crypto market in the coming 1-2 years will be huge; 2019 will be a big year - March, 2019 is when I am speculating the ETF will become a reality. Why the next 1-2 years? Well, if you try to coincide the technology with the "news", it will all make sense. The biggest challenge (before mass adoption) with all major blockchain platforms including ETH is scalability. The lightning network is still undergoing beta testing as more developers join the protocol.

The next 6 months is where the developers will figure this out! The last year or so has been spent in some good research, and I am confident that as we get into the next year - we will be hearing a ton more "news" about plasma, lightning network and other blockchains adopting or innovating their way into the scalability solutions. Example Stellar's team been working on their own lightning network, Zcash developers are getting into IoT and mobile through the scalping upgrade, Omisego's team has probably put in the most amount of effort into Plasma research thus far...

2. Given where we are with the economy, a slowdown, a break or a crash in the next 1-2 years is imminent. If you don't think that, you either have been living under a rock, or have a really one-sided view into this. Let me ask you this in a different way, do you know "how bitcoin was born?" If you do not, well the answer lies in 5 words - "The financial crisis of 2008". Now, when the next slowdown, break or a crash happens, where do you think the money will pour into? It's not going to be stock market, it's definitely not going to be the housing market but it's most likely going to be crypto. Why crypto? Well, the answer is very simple - we need a catalyst for any and every change. For the mass adoption to happen, first we need to have the technology that can scale - but when we do have the technology (explained above), we need a reason for us to change, embrace new technology and a different way of living. How will this ever happen? Well, the next major crisis could be the catalyst.

I hope my views don't come across as narrow - tried to cover both sides and be rational. If you disagree, please drop a comment - I always try to learn a thing or two from everyone around me. As always, be positive, believe in the tech and think long-term - we are all experiencing the future.

~SMB