Elliott Wave Analysis On BTC

7月23日

I usually use separate chart software for much of my technical analysis, so this prediction is based on alternative software in addition to tradingview

Major Wave Structure

1. Primary Waves
• W-X-Y-XX-Z: The chart indicates a complex corrective pattern, often referred to as a double or triple three.
• 1-2-3-4-5: Following the complex correction, the chart shows an impulsive wave structure.
2. Subwaves
• Each primary wave consists of smaller-degree waves, labeled in both numerical and alphabetical sequences.

Detailed Breakdown

1. Corrective Phase (W-X-Y-XX-Z)
• Wave W: Initial corrective phase, typically a zigzag or flat.
• Wave X: Connecting wave, often taking the form of a triangle or flat.
• Wave Y: Another corrective wave similar to wave W.
• Wave XX: Another connecting wave.
• Wave Z: Final corrective phase in the complex structure.
2. Impulsive Phase (1-2-3-4-5)
• Wave 1: Initial impulsive wave marking the start of a new trend.
• Wave 2: Corrective phase, retracing part of wave 1.
• Wave 3: The strongest wave, often extending to 161.8% of wave 1.
• Wave 4: Another corrective wave, usually less severe than wave 2.
• Wave 5: Final wave in the impulsive phase, often showing divergence with indicators like MACD or RSI.

Fibonacci Levels

• Fibonacci retracement levels are key in identifying potential reversal points.
• 23.6% Retracement: Around 65615.200, indicating a potential resistance level during a pullback.
• 38.2% Retracement: Near 63986.000, suggesting a significant support level.
• 50% Retracement: Typically considered a strong support or resistance level.

Future Projections

1. Wave (3)
• Currently, wave (3) appears to be forming, which is typically the most extended and powerful wave in the impulsive phase. This wave is projected to continue upwards, with potential resistance around 67506.460.
2. Wave (4)
• After completing wave (3), a corrective wave (4) is expected. This wave could retrace to the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci levels, around 63986.000.
3. Wave (5)
• Following wave (4), wave (5) would resume the upward trend, potentially targeting new highs above the previous peak of wave (3).

Conclusion

• Short-Term: Expect continued upward movement in wave (3), with resistance around 67506.460.
• Medium-Term: A corrective phase (wave (4)) is likely, targeting support around 63986.000.
• Long-Term: After wave (4), the upward trend should resume in wave (5), potentially targeting higher levels.

Trading Strategy

• Entry: Consider entering long positions near the end of wave (4), using Fibonacci support levels around 63986.000 as potential entry points.
• Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss orders below the 50% retracement level to protect against deeper corrections.
• Targets: Set initial profit targets around the resistance level of wave (3) and adjust positions based on the development of wave (5).