BTCUSD - Bitcoin Cyclic Analysis
Understanding Bitcoin Trends
Bitcoin has maintained 2-year trend cycles as far back as it has been traded and the price ranges for each trend have shown consistent patterns. Here, I'll try my best to show what patterns we can find and how they might be helpful.
Bullish Cycles
Following the past cycles, we can expect the next bull run to show up around the first quarter of 2025.
During the 2020-22 bullish cycle, Bitcoin has shown what might seem explosive growth but as the chart shows, the price change has been shrinking every following cycle. This means that the growth rate, despite being incredibly high, is slowing. Due to this, we can confidently predict that the price change will likely not cross the previous threshold (1662% increase). We can look for the increase to be around 800-1000%, which might feel optimistic. But also consider that during every bull cycle, the price has broken the high of the previous bull cycle, which means that if it is to happen again during the 2024-26 cycle, the increase will at least be higher than 800%.
Bearish Cycles
We are currently in a bear run and it is not showing any signs of slowing down.
Bear cycles have maintained a consistent price change of about 83% for both past cycles. This means that the market is maintaining a recovery range for each of those cycles at around 80%. If we see the current 2022-24 bear cycle, the price is on its way to reaching that recovery range. We can expect the price to reach that range during the first quarter of 2023. The price will bounce from there to start the next bull cycle.
Thank you for reading. I hope this has been useful to you in some way.
I'd love to know your thoughts on this.
Bitcoin has maintained 2-year trend cycles as far back as it has been traded and the price ranges for each trend have shown consistent patterns. Here, I'll try my best to show what patterns we can find and how they might be helpful.
Bullish Cycles
Following the past cycles, we can expect the next bull run to show up around the first quarter of 2025.
During the 2020-22 bullish cycle, Bitcoin has shown what might seem explosive growth but as the chart shows, the price change has been shrinking every following cycle. This means that the growth rate, despite being incredibly high, is slowing. Due to this, we can confidently predict that the price change will likely not cross the previous threshold (1662% increase). We can look for the increase to be around 800-1000%, which might feel optimistic. But also consider that during every bull cycle, the price has broken the high of the previous bull cycle, which means that if it is to happen again during the 2024-26 cycle, the increase will at least be higher than 800%.
Bearish Cycles
We are currently in a bear run and it is not showing any signs of slowing down.
Bear cycles have maintained a consistent price change of about 83% for both past cycles. This means that the market is maintaining a recovery range for each of those cycles at around 80%. If we see the current 2022-24 bear cycle, the price is on its way to reaching that recovery range. We can expect the price to reach that range during the first quarter of 2023. The price will bounce from there to start the next bull cycle.
Thank you for reading. I hope this has been useful to you in some way.
I'd love to know your thoughts on this.
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