End of the Bull Run or just a Correction?

アップデート済

We've had a really good run over the past 2 weeks. Obviously we were over extended and due for some kind of pullback, but the 200 day MA acted as strong resistance once again. Overall this is a bearish sign, however, due the length of this bull move we could just have a correction and then attempt to break the 200 day MA once again. If we can break this point, then I will be bullish up to 11800, which is the next major resistance zone.

I still am under the impression that BTC has too much over head resistance at this point to turn completely bullish. If we can start using major resistance points as supports, then I would become more optimistic on the potential of a trend reversal. Clearly we are still within the bear trend, but you also can't ignore some of the bullish strength that's been displayed. But we can't simply go back up to 20k at this pace and I feel like it will be a long winded battle between the bulls and the bears. We will see though.

ノート

Quick update on BTC -0.17% . You can see on the 4 hour time-frame that we havn't fully made a lower low yet, and are currently holding the 50 EMA level. It looks like the bulls are attempting to bounce and continue, but there needs to be more strength to signal continuation. As soon as the 20 and 50 EMA cross, and we drop below the 0.382, then this will signal a short term trend reversal. Bulls are trying to defend against this, but the bears have an advantage in the short term.

The 0.382 Fib Retracement also coincides with some support from peak which hit 8456. the bulls could attempt to rally of this point, but in my opinion it's not strong enough to hold so I expect us to at least hit the 0.5. Depending on the force of the bears, the bulls could regain momentum from here. If the bulls can continue this trend and make a higher low, then they need to stay above the crucial support line otherwise I feel that any bounce attempt will be eaten up by the bears.

Watch out for the fib lines, see if the bulls can bring in some big volume around these points to regain control, and then we can assess whether we can have continuation of this mid term bullish move. I still lean slightly towards the bears at this point but as a long term holder would prefer to see BTC -0.17% show it's bullish hand.

ノート

If the 50 EMA doesn't hold on the 4 hour time-frame, I expect a drop to 8500. So far we have held above the 50 EMA so until then I remain neutral to bullish . If we drop to 8500, then we will have to see if we get a sustained bounce back up. By this point I expect the 20 and 50 EMA to start crossing which could act as resistance.

ノート

Bulls still defending that 50 EMA! Big volume spike but the bears are trying to suppress a breakout.

ノート

Not much has changed, Bulls have still defended the 50 EMA and it looks like we are in a consolidation period. I expect a fairly decent breakout to the upside over the next day or two unless we can't hold the 50 EMA

ノート

If we can break above the 200 day MA and retest it as support, that would be pretty bullish and I would look to add a long position on the bounce.

ノート

1 possible scenario

2nd possible scenario

3rd possible scenario

These are all very speculative forecasts, and it's likely the picture will look different. But It's useful to envision these kinds of scenarios based of historic charting patterns and scenarios from both negative a positive price movements to see which one look's most likely. I am still leaning between scenario 2 and 3, and hoping for scenario 2.

ノート

EDIT** I meant I am leaning towards scenario 1 and 3, not 2 (although that would be great if 2 comes into fruition).

ノート

A small H&S Pattern that could drop us to the 0.382 line. Not a perfect H&S though and I am still anticipating the 50 EMA holding us on the 4 hour time frame (this is currently the 1 hour time frame).

ノート

50 EMA remains supportive, but a break down will most likely drop us to the 0.382.

ノート

Moving as anticipated. 4 hour close below the 50 EMA signals a bit more downside to me. H&S target is still on. The EMA's are starting to curve and I am watching for a cross. RSI not yet oversold so no big bounce yet, but it's looking pretty weak. Bulls want to defend the support around 8500 and I expect to see them attempt this if we get to those levels. Unless the bears absolutely hammer us past that point, it could be a good setup for a quick bounce trade.

ノート

Looks like this scenario I drew is playing out so far: