Finding BTC top with dxy and fed balance sheet

2021年4月19日

So we're at the pivot point where most of us are asking where do we sell? Is it top yet - so wanted to explore correlations between btc,dxy and fed balance sheet and how do they affect the bullmarket top - found few:

What's on the chart?
1. indicator bellow chart is us fed balance sheet - change, second indicator is total sum of balance sheet over time.

Correlations?

1. usually after halving dxy has a period when it pumps along with btc price for the first leg and then creates a zigzag pattern where it starts to go look for bottom (circled in green).

2. after the zigzag dxy starts dumping giving boost to btc price until it finds bottom:

3. when dxy bottoms btc stops moving higher marks end of cycle (circled in orange), smaller the balance sheet faster dxy recovers

4. afterwards btc starts consolidation period while dxy starts picking off - fed balance sheet enters phase when no larger increases are made to the sheet - balance sheet starts decreasing.

When will the bullmarket end?

This year due to covid we had everything happened at the same time:

we had large increase of balance sheet helping boost the btc price along with the zigzag pattern, after that event halving happened and dxy started looking for bottom.

There are currently 2 potential scenarios:

1. either dxy stays arround 89.80ish creating a new bottom and marking top for btc - market with white line - this needs to be supported by fed balance sheet that is either not increasing - or decreasing.
2. fed balance sheet keeps increasing having the dxy bottom at a later time - supporting continuation of the bullmarket cycle - market with purple line.


Toughts?

2022年4月26日

ノート

looks like confirmed