ビットコイン／米ドルロング
Compare Bitcoin 2014 and 2018. The history is repeating?
アップデート済
I think there is no exist 2 timeline that the market do the same action. Compare 2 different period and try to find the same way it does just is a stupid action and it's nonsense. However, I saw so much "pro trader" are trying to compare it the many friends and my students ask me about it so I will do this idea to show you that it's totaly difference. My TA based on the action of price, I only trust the chart, all result below according the signal, I never care about news though its good or bad. I also don't care about FUD or FOMO, my idea itsn't a buying or selling advice. You can consult but do best for your self.
Excuse me about my bad English, hope you understand what I want to tell you.
Ok, let's go!
Market right now:
- Price moving on a wedge, we have 3 week hard drop down almost no any rebound.
- Price move on lower band of BB 20.
- Price move on near by base line of Ichimoku cloud
- MA 30 and MA 50 still go up
- SRI 8 at nearly 39, very over sold at all timeline
- Base line of BB is narrowing
What does it's mean?
- The market looking very weak but I think it's almost end on short term. As the price moving the wedge so the lower base line of wedge and higher base line of Ichimoku Cloud will become very strong support zone.
- In the worst, price might down to this zone, it's nearly $7000. In the short term, it's almost impossible to breakout this support zone.
- On the next week, the candle live near by the baseline of Ichimoku Cloud, it give us a chance to rebound. The wedge may be broke, but MA 30 and lower base line of Ichimoku Cloud will become strong resistance zone, this level nearly $10200.
Well, now I will compare Bitcoin 2014 vs 2018. Please have a look at this screen:
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Bitcoin 2014
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- On Feb we saw a signal crash when the candle closed under MA 9. It was end when reached SMA 50. We can see a downtrend line on both candle and RSI.
- After reached MA 50, price was reversed (point 1) then rejected by MA 9 (point 2), after that it moved on flat until meet the higher base line of Ichimoku Cloud then mega up.
- We havd an uptrend on both candle and RSI. However, this uptrend was rejected by MA 30, we had addition confirmation when the candle cosed under MA 9 and lower baseline of Ichimoku Cloud. The final confirmation for bearish was appeared when MA 30 and MA 50 were crossed and we have some candle closed under this point. Uptrend on RSI also was broke.
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Bitcoin 2018
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- On Jan, we had crash signal when the candle closed under MA 9
- Price was tried to reversal from MA 30 but it was rejected after that by MA 9
- On 2nd crash, price was tried to reversal from MA 50 (point 1), it crossed MA 9 but it was rejected by MA 30 (point 2).
- We had a downtrend line on RSI but we had an uptrend line on the candle.
- Right now price are trying to down but it's supported very strong at the higher baseline of Ichimoku Cloud.
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Do you see the difference on 2 preriod time? Yes, I think you do, the diffence is the uptrend on the candle while we saw a downtrend on RSI. If you put BB on the chart you can see on 2014 price was moved down to lower base line of Bollinger Bands at point 1 but on 2018 it wasn't.
So, I still keep my idea that right now is so early to say Bitcoin is ended, also to say Bitcoin on the road to bullish. But I can say with my consider that we will see a strong reversal on the next month. $10200 for sure, but I think it might reach $12600.
Excuse me about my bad English, hope you understand what I want to tell you.
Ok, let's go!
Market right now:
- Price moving on a wedge, we have 3 week hard drop down almost no any rebound.
- Price move on lower band of BB 20.
- Price move on near by base line of Ichimoku cloud
- MA 30 and MA 50 still go up
- SRI 8 at nearly 39, very over sold at all timeline
- Base line of BB is narrowing
What does it's mean?
- The market looking very weak but I think it's almost end on short term. As the price moving the wedge so the lower base line of wedge and higher base line of Ichimoku Cloud will become very strong support zone.
- In the worst, price might down to this zone, it's nearly $7000. In the short term, it's almost impossible to breakout this support zone.
- On the next week, the candle live near by the baseline of Ichimoku Cloud, it give us a chance to rebound. The wedge may be broke, but MA 30 and lower base line of Ichimoku Cloud will become strong resistance zone, this level nearly $10200.
Well, now I will compare Bitcoin 2014 vs 2018. Please have a look at this screen:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bitcoin 2014
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- On Feb we saw a signal crash when the candle closed under MA 9. It was end when reached SMA 50. We can see a downtrend line on both candle and RSI.
- After reached MA 50, price was reversed (point 1) then rejected by MA 9 (point 2), after that it moved on flat until meet the higher base line of Ichimoku Cloud then mega up.
- We havd an uptrend on both candle and RSI. However, this uptrend was rejected by MA 30, we had addition confirmation when the candle cosed under MA 9 and lower baseline of Ichimoku Cloud. The final confirmation for bearish was appeared when MA 30 and MA 50 were crossed and we have some candle closed under this point. Uptrend on RSI also was broke.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bitcoin 2018
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- On Jan, we had crash signal when the candle closed under MA 9
- Price was tried to reversal from MA 30 but it was rejected after that by MA 9
- On 2nd crash, price was tried to reversal from MA 50 (point 1), it crossed MA 9 but it was rejected by MA 30 (point 2).
- We had a downtrend line on RSI but we had an uptrend line on the candle.
- Right now price are trying to down but it's supported very strong at the higher baseline of Ichimoku Cloud.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Do you see the difference on 2 preriod time? Yes, I think you do, the diffence is the uptrend on the candle while we saw a downtrend on RSI. If you put BB on the chart you can see on 2014 price was moved down to lower base line of Bollinger Bands at point 1 but on 2018 it wasn't.
So, I still keep my idea that right now is so early to say Bitcoin is ended, also to say Bitcoin on the road to bullish. But I can say with my consider that we will see a strong reversal on the next month. $10200 for sure, but I think it might reach $12600.
ノート
I have 2 cases on this timeline----------------------------------------
Case 1: Bearish
If we had a candle close under $10200 after move up to $1600 or a signal that it is rejected after reach MA 30. This rejection must be completed with some addition signal: RSI uptrend crash, a candle close under lower base line of Ichimoku Cloud.
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Case 2: Bullish:
If we saw the move up to atleast $14200, addition signal: maximum RSI must higher 69.47
-----------------------------------------
A rebound to higher than $7645 is the addition confirmation for a upward movement to $10200, $12600 or higher.
ノート
Sorry, a mistke when type: $12600 not $1600.
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