BITCOIN - Bounce Or Retracement ottom ?

8月1日

BTC

Now on higher time frame notice that the Golden Window catches were also in higher liquidity just before the lowest and therefore most significant support.

So this is an ideal point for a bounce.

I think this may go one of two ways from here.

This may be the retracement bottom and BTC push on into the next wave up from here.

Or it may be a connective wave to bounce and then see another wave down to deeper fibs that we were looking at previously.

Most likely I think we may see one of two outcomes:

1) This will be a 3 wave structure of which we have no had wave 1 (white arrow). From here we may see some sort of weak bounce; perhaps to tap into liquidity above the demand line and then make a lower low (red arrow).

If that happens the most likely extension ratio will be another weak 1:0.618 Golden Window.

2) Or this may actually be the retracement bottom:

Liquidity has been tapped and we move into the next wave up (green arrow).

3) Or also it could be something more complex and we'll just have to puzzle through it.

I somewhat favour 1 here.

Because it has been quite a bearish wave and so I think it may take another 2 waves to complete the correction.

But 2 is very much on the table. This might just be the retracement bottom.

Not advice.

8月1日

ノート

BTC

In the blink of an eye, its a bullish engulf bear trap shakeout through through support.

Looking bullish now - perhaps outcome 2.

8月1日

ノート

This was a 2 part idea, but in copying it fast to TradingView I forgot to include part1 .

So here is part 1:

BTC might be having a significant bounce here.

I found another significant Golden Window:

The 1.618 reverse extension.

And as well the final wave down (white arrow) is a 1:0.618 Golden Window extension.

That is a weak ratio and suggests a bounce.

8月1日

トレード稼働中

8月1日

ノート

Do BOOST my thread if you like it and more TV'ers will see my work - thanks 👍.

8月3日

ノート

Outcome 1

8月4日

ノート

Last market cycle it made a similar scare dump at a similar time post halving.

The exact ratio it bottomed at on the Bitcoin INDEX chart was 0.68.



That 0.68 in this current dump is @ $58342.

So, I'm looking for a pivot somewhere in this area.

It could be anywhere between the 0.618 - 0.786 but more likely it won't get much further than 0.7 if Bitcoin is bullish in this area, which most likely it is since we are post halving.

The sideways arrow shows where this similar scare dump happened in 2020 last market cycle before the mega bull began.

Everyone is bearish now and the herd are always wrong. Not advice but can be a great moment to buy the dip.

Buy fear, sell greed.

8月4日

ノート

Look what I just found.

The 1.618 reverse extension of the pivot low and high of the distribution hits almost exactly the 0.68 retracement ~ where the bull pivot was in the September 2020 dump.

It looks like the same ratio pattern may be repeating 🤠.

8月6日

ノート

Bitcoin dumped further and bears are dancing in the rain. But this is where most of these types dont make any profit because they imagine the bear goes on and on and never buy the dip.

Of course this area is not without risk and stock indexes...

But take a look; the S&P bounced plumb in the 1.618 extension Golden Window.



Could well be a a swift recovery and moving on up.

And top crypto stocks MSTR & IREN most notable had big recovery bounces to almost be back where they were last week.

Some really funny bears on this page.

Its actually nice to get some comments even of they are mostly negative.

One bearish troll getting really swept up in the moment saying that I (and others) will be "getting a niece big piece of humble pie" today.

But I'm not a day trader.

I'm buying the market cycle.

Obviously being bullish I wouldn't have complained about BTC moving on up directly.

But as it has dumped, this has been a great moment to sell bond ETFs to buy more crypto and related instruments.

So while the bears sing bear songs late into the night, I'm buying the dip.

See you @ 174K.