Bitcoin: Risk Of Retrace Too High At These Levels.

2020年11月8日

Bitcoin now showing a potential bullish trend continuation pattern but at a level that does not make sense for our strategy in terms of risk. Our most recent swing trade had us out at 13,250 and even though there have been some extremely aggressive buy signals, we continue to WAIT for a high probability location and setup.

At this point that means we WAIT for a retrace back to the mid to low 13K area. 13,600 was a previous projected resistance, and may act as a minor support. If that level is cleared, then we will be looking for the mid to low 12Ks for a more significant support.

Levels alone are NOT enough to justify risk. Price testing a level is only the first step within the strategy that we employ. Price can hesitate at a level, lure reactive longs, and then clear the level like it was never there. This is why waiting for a SETUP is so important in such scenarios.

ALL markets are HIGHLY random, but not ALWAYS random. Our goal is to isolate those situations where probability is MOST in our favor for the type of trade we are looking to take (swing trade).

Human nature is your worst enemy in this game because it is what you will rely on (emotional reactions) when faced with extreme uncertainty. Having a process for identifying quality opportunities with a strong emphasis on RISK is a must if you want to actually generate a positive outcome over time.

I bring this up now because a new buy signal will be generated upon a break of 15,700 but it is NOT worth the associated risk. Reactive traders who chase profits will buy into that with hope of 20K or whatever the fake gurus are pushing to get attention. Missing moves doesn't cost anything. Taking low probability setups that pay off on occasion are much more costly in the long run.

Thank you for checking out my analysis and I hope you found it helpful.