The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull Cycle

6月27日

How Much Longer Will the Good Times Last?

In this chart, I highlighted 3 different cyclic frameworks.

1. The dynamic time cycle which is shown as "grey/blue zigzag" extended into the future. It is a 186 day cycle pattern which was observed at any past parabolic move since 2010 in Bitcoin. It needs 5 repetitions in order to complete a parabolic up move. Count 5 is to be expected to arrive summer next year. I also marked the "static" view for that cycle with blue circle arcs at the bottom. The red is the nominal (average) 200days cycle.
   
   
2. I added the seasonality cycles for Bitcoin at the top of the chart, highlighted with colored areas. The simple seasonality is always a bullish yearly start into May/June, follows by a flat June and bearish July-September pattern. Then bullish from October into end of the year.
   
   
3. The bitcoin halving cycle impact is also shown with the pinkish vertical lines. The last one happened April 2024. During the first 100days period after the halving, there is no impact to be expected. But analyzing past halving cycles, there has always been a big-up-excess around 400days after the halving.
   

Interestingly, all these 3 cyclic pattern are in alignment for the period October 2024 into May 2025 with a common bullish outlook. So we might get a flat to challenging summer 2024. But afterwards the cycle seem to vote for a continuation of the current bull cycle.

At the bottom, I added my preferred cyclic-tuned dynamic cyclic RSI indicator. Which I have made public for everyone. ("cRSI")

I presented more details on this analysis in my personal blog.