BTCUSD (2018-02-01) - a tale of two wedges

2018年2月2日

hello folks, it seems like bitcoin has taken a nose dive, but taking a step back, there were already suggestions (via TA and FUD) that bitcoin would take a dip. the dip was more than i expected but it certainly became more possible over the past couple weeks.

BUT now i'm looking at these two falling wedges. for the next week i'll be estimating that price will stick around the red circle, around 7900. this is a level of support based on past price. if it breaks below, i'll be drawing an even steeper falling wedge.

this is initally bad, as most people are bullish on the price, but steeper falling wedge, to me, means that price will more easily breakout and up.

one thing that does not look good for a bullish move in the next month, and suggests, at least to me, that the price can break lower than 7900 easily is the volume. the volume has been steady during the retrace and only now, there was a volume spike. to think about this, it seems a new set of people have finally tapped out and have officially started sweating this retrace.

any comments or ideas to build upon or break down my idea is encouraged and appreciated.


A a more long term idea, (next couple months), is the green falling wedge i drew out. price will likely stay underneath the top of the green wedge, and i can see the price going sideways for february/march in this range IF the price doesnt' break lower than 7900.
if the price can stay in this range. alt season can continue. (jan-march??? normally? if someone is knowledgeable in past history of alt seasons and the crypto market cycle, some feedback in this would be appreciated)