Bitcoin: Level But No Confirmation To Buy.

2021年4月25日

This is why you don't step in front of a market that has yet to confirm. Bitcoin has entered into the 50K to 47,500 area bullish reversal zone. It took about 3 weeks from the previous peak to get here, but as I remind our followers regularly, PATIENCE PAYS. This is where infrequent and higher probability opportunities develop, NOT near highs.

How many people were lured into the alt coin hype and euphoria only to get stuck in this situation? Clearly, the majority of alts have retraced significantly off their highs, FOLLOWING Bitcoin. No matter how amazing their ideas, projects, promises, milestones, white papers, forks, etc. Where Bitcoin goes, they eventually still follow. People who caught some big moves when most of these coins were worth next to nothing basically caught lottery tickets. IF you bought when prices were vertical, you may now realize all you were doing was letting these people out of their positions. Lesson: Don't chase vertical markets. Don't buy highs.

Now that Bitcoin is sitting around a support area, along with many alts (LTC, DOT, UNI,etc.) the reward/risk and probability around such a location makes a LOT more sense for a new swing trade long. When to enter though? And what is the risk?

There is one inside bar established and another still in play (today's candle). If price can take out the 51,300 level, that would confirm a new buy signal. The risk is defined from 47,300 which means you are looking at 4K point stop. Potential rewards can begin to be measured between the 53,300 to 60K area which offers a R:R of greater than 1:1.

Will Bitcoin push through 60K on the next leg higher? There is no way to know, BUT it is within reason to test the mid to high 50Ks on an attempt. For a swing trade that is all we are looking for, a reward/risk ratio and probability that is favorable.

IF 47,500 support breaks instead, the next support is around the 46 to 44K area. If that is taken out, then its 40K.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and I hope you find it helpful.