CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession starts
The new 
CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) .
Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to FXEvolution for the article.
DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes.
If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500
What to do:
If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) .Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to FXEvolution for the article.
DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes.
If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500
What to do:
If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
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