Watchlist 2023-02-17 #DKNG #SABR #CSCO #MRNA #XP #STEM
SPY - in a week filled with negative news; CPI revised higher, PPI hot, jobs number higher than expected, SPY still showed resilience as I tried to break and hold 413. However, the straw that finally broker the camel's back was Bullard (a non-voting member) indicating a 50 bps hike would be his choice at the next meeting. SPY dropped like a rock from there on out until this morning, gapping down to 406. The bearish bias is set for me IMO. If we push higher, looking to start selling the weak names once spy gets to 4010 resistance. If a heavy channel forms around the bottom range, I'd need to see a fake out above the channel first before shorting - that gives me confidence the move lower will be sustained and improves R/R.
Long Watches:
DKNG - up 1.6 ATRs after record revenue and increased 2023 guidance. 18.60 is the PM low and PD low which would be a terrific entry if there is value buying. Otherwise. Will be prepared for a pullback trade as it's close to the key 19.75 pivot.
SABR - down 20% 2 days ago. Had a nice rally yesterday. Want to see support again at key pivot at 5.56. N Above 5.75 there is room to 6.23
CSCO - earnings and revenue beat, annual forecast raised. Long over 50.50
Short Watches:
MRNA - Moderna flu vaccine delivers mixed results in trial. Gapping just under the key pivot at the bottom of the range, under the 200 EMA, AND after a weak bounce. A+ trade if we can see some vol show up in the morning - only trades 50k shares by 8:30.
STEM - Q4 sales miss. Short under the key pivot of 8.70 and below the range with declining Mas. Down a nice 1 ATR but only 50K in PM vol so far. Want to see a rejection of HVN 9.10 first.
XP - below a double bottom pivot, All-time low, and below a few days of wicking daily bars. Announce back in jan they would be laying off employees so there is certainly some folks who bought under this news. Everyone is now underwater, showing huge weakness in the PM with 250K shares traded and gapping down 3 ATRs. Need a pattern first so hopefully this doesn’t tank immediately.
I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts
Long Watches:
DKNG - up 1.6 ATRs after record revenue and increased 2023 guidance. 18.60 is the PM low and PD low which would be a terrific entry if there is value buying. Otherwise. Will be prepared for a pullback trade as it's close to the key 19.75 pivot.
SABR - down 20% 2 days ago. Had a nice rally yesterday. Want to see support again at key pivot at 5.56. N Above 5.75 there is room to 6.23
CSCO - earnings and revenue beat, annual forecast raised. Long over 50.50
Short Watches:
MRNA - Moderna flu vaccine delivers mixed results in trial. Gapping just under the key pivot at the bottom of the range, under the 200 EMA, AND after a weak bounce. A+ trade if we can see some vol show up in the morning - only trades 50k shares by 8:30.
STEM - Q4 sales miss. Short under the key pivot of 8.70 and below the range with declining Mas. Down a nice 1 ATR but only 50K in PM vol so far. Want to see a rejection of HVN 9.10 first.
XP - below a double bottom pivot, All-time low, and below a few days of wicking daily bars. Announce back in jan they would be laying off employees so there is certainly some folks who bought under this news. Everyone is now underwater, showing huge weakness in the PM with 250K shares traded and gapping down 3 ATRs. Need a pattern first so hopefully this doesn’t tank immediately.
I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts
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