A logical target price, if your Elliott wave and Fibonacci projections play out, would be in the vicinity of the key Fibonacci retracement levels—particularly around the 61.8% ($65 area) or as high as the 78.6% ($72 area) retracement of the prior decline. If the bullish Elliott wave structure is confirmed and momentum is strong, an eventual retest of the swing high near $80 could be possible. However, these should be treated as potential targets, not guarantees.
More Detailed Reasoning:
Identifying Wave Targets with Fibonacci: Elliott wave practitioners often use Fibonacci extensions and retracements to project potential price targets for each wave. Assuming your scenario of a new 5-wave impulse forming off the recent low is correct, the two key levels to watch would be:
61.8% Retracement (~$65): This is a common target for a robust Wave (3) or as an initial resistance level if price is reclaiming ground lost in the correction. 78.6% Retracement (~$72): This level often comes into play if the trend is especially strong. If Wave (3) surpasses the 61.8% level decisively and doesn’t encounter heavy selling, the 78.6% is the next logical checkpoint. Wave-by-Wave Considerations:
Wave (3) Target: Typically, Wave (3) is the most dynamic and might push price to or beyond the 61.8% retracement. If momentum and volume confirm the bullish move, $65 could be an initial target. Surpassing that, $72 becomes the next serious test. Wave (5) Potential: If the structure unfolds in textbook fashion and there’s enough bullish sentiment, Wave (5) could aim to retest the previous swing high near $80, or even exceed it. This final push often comes with weaker RSI momentum and possible divergence, signaling caution. Market Confirmation: It’s important to note that these are projected targets based on an Elliott wave scenario and assume the market follows a recognizable pattern. Before making trading decisions, look for confirming evidence:
Momentum (RSI): RSI should trend upwards as the price moves into Wave (3). Weak RSI as price approaches $65 or $72 would be a warning sign. Volume Patterns: Increasing volume on moves higher supports the bullish scenario. If volume declines as price approaches key fib levels, you might encounter resistance or a failing rally. Risk Management: Always remember that no Elliott wave or Fibonacci level guarantees a certain price outcome. Unexpected market developments, news events, or changes in sentiment can derail even the clearest pattern. Plan your trades with stop-loss orders, monitor market conditions closely, and be ready to adjust your targets as real-time data evolves.
Conclusion: Based on the given Elliott wave and Fibonacci framework, a reasonable bullish target would first be the 61.8% retracement ($65), followed by the 78.6% ($72) if momentum remains strong. A more optimistic scenario might see price retest the previous highs near $80. Use these levels as guides rather than absolutes, and monitor volume and RSI for confirmation as the trend unfolds.