DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022

DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022

We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 70th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX.
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 5.3%
BULLISH Candle : 5.14%


With this in mind we can expect with a close to 16% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 12385
TOP: 14302


Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 13300 (already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 11900