notes from BoA Global Research: "In order for the split-off to close fully subscribed, DD needs nearly 197mn shares to tender. Much of this volume will come via merger arbitrage investors, which we estimate may have already purchased 170mn shares, the bulk of which has come since the formal tender launch on 31 Dec ‘20. Of course the deal could be oversubscribed, but even still, with the tender window closing on 29 Jan, we are likely through a majority of the buying. This large pattern of technical buying will run out by month-end, when it will be replaced by technical headwinds as index funds (many of which do not participate in tenders) are forced to sell shares of DD to rebalance for the smaller pro forma market cap."
