Trump

2021年10月22日

The predictability of crowds. Well this is not something that slowly started. I probably mentionned the history of fake news at some point, and I hzve an article as draft about it, 1 example is a fake news thatsent UK stocks up 5% in minutes centuries ago. This right here is not fake news, but same principle: price is probably not correlated to reality, it's all speculation.

Trump Media & Technology Group is merging with DWAC if you didn't know. Was this predictable? Yeah maybe. Trump and anyone that isn't a centrist or "woke" american (Alt right, communists, socialists except the american ones, US republicans, europe far right, east europe conservatives, ...) has been trying to look for social media alternative. Everyone knows it is a multi trillion dollar market. And Trump kept saying he was trying to build something, that kind of lyrics. In theory it was possible to profit from this I think, but you'd have to be super specialized. How many of these acquisition companies exist? How often are they total scams with false promises? Did DWAC throw any hints? Depending on these answers it was possible or not.

I haven't done big stats on these rallies, but from what I have seen it's probably gambling. Some "investors" will use the word speculate, because they lack the intellectual ability to think, not their fault. It's simple:

Definition of speculate
As an intransitive verb

1 a: to meditate on or ponder a subject : REFLECT
b: to review something idly or casually and often inconclusively
2: to assume a business risk in hope of gain

The meaning is totally different. In the case of investing, the context forces the meaning to be (2). The "holy grail magical just buy and hold bro stocks only go up" stuck up nerds that are persuaded they are doing the right thing assume the meaning 1-b I guess.

And then as a transitive verb

1: to take to be true on the basis of insufficient evidence : THEORIZE
2: to be curious or doubtful about : WONDER

And nb 1 here is what is assumed.

This word smells, just avoid it. You're either gambling or investing. There is no in between. Investing and holding for 5 years is not "less risky" than 2 weeks, that's super stupid, you are taking a risk (if it's stocks or FX or commodities) either way, and 5 years the risk is bigger OBVIOUSLY! Much more chaos and random stuff can happen. Guys with a crush on Warren Buffett say "oh well you know within 2 weeks it's all noise", with stocks, yes, most of the time. Then that's GAMBLING. So there is no need for an intermediate word between gambling and investing. Either you know what to expect, you have a plan based on experience, stats, or something. Or you are just gambling.

Which brings me to... These surprise mergers, how many days do they usually go up?



Ye nevermind. It's a whole project to go find these mergers, especially small surprise ones, and see if there is a pattern (like 70% of them going up for more than 3 days, or very little pullback on the way up which leads to massive RR). Don't touch what you don't know. I've always been curious on how these worked, if there was any edge. But curiosity is not enough to go through grueling labor, searching for examples... It's simpler for stock investors that pay attention to such news.

Trump can't move the entire stock market 10% anymore, but he can move individual stocks 1000%. Or more, we will see.

As I wrote this article the price shot up and crashed. Ok that's pure gambling.