I've been using DWTI (Inverse ETF of oil) as an indicator to time oil. My projection is DWTI will hit $255 per share when oil is trading in the low 30's. At that point I will go long oil and expect DWTI to trade lower. Why DWTI? Because the structure is extremely clear to me whereas oil shows a lot of POTENTIAL bottoms. DWTI, although a derivative of real price, has very clear signals for topping, which is obviously good for oil.
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This trade may become invalid. If DWTI opens above my blue box I will not initiate a trade. This definitely looks like it will happen.
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THE BREAKOUT IN DWTI INVALIDATES A LONG TRADE IN OIL. I'm becoming more convinced oil is headed to $22.
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My "Extremely Unlikely" area is now far from extremely unlikely. I am inclined to believe that the $16 level has become more likely than the $40 level in the near future.
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