USD Roadmap: Bullish Recovery or Structural Breakdown?

6月27日

DXY DXY

🟢 Scenario A – Bullish Rebound (Red Arrow Up):
Price bounces from the lower channel and breaks toward:

107.348, 110.176, or even 111.901 resistance area.

If the dollar is supported by China buying USD, hawkish Fed, or geopolitical tensions, this scenario gains weight.

🔸 Resistance: Blue downward-sloping line (possible trendline resistance or lower high area)
🔸 Risk: Price could form a lower high and then reverse.

🔴 Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown (Red Arrow Down):
If the USD fails to break above resistance (around 107–112) and gets rejected…

Then we see a move back down, possibly breaking the long-term channel, aiming for the lower diagonal support zone or even sub-92.

🔸 This would signal a major shift in USD strength, possibly driven by:

Fed rate cuts

Global de-dollarization

China not supporting USD

Stronger EUR or CNY

7月1日

トレード稼働中

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have completed a major ABC corrective structure, with wave C potentially bottoming at 96.7. This level aligns with:

✅ The completion of a bullish harmonic pattern (1.618 extension)
✅ Long-term ascending trendline support
✅ Strong confluence with Fibonacci clusters

🟢 Bullish Scenario (Primary):
Targeting Wave a–b–c structure to the upside

Key Fibonacci resistance:
• 106.03 (70%)
• 110.17 (100%)
• 118.90 – 121.12 (long-term projection)

A breakout above 101.65 would confirm Wave a and open the door for a sustained rally. Rejection below 96.0 would invalidate the bullish structure.

💬 Chart by Trwin – July 2025

7月7日

ノート

📰 Trump Announces New Tariffs:
Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan → 25%

South Africa → 30%
🧠 Macro Interpretation
🟢 Bullish for DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
Flight to safety: Investors may move into USD amidst global trade tension.

Deflationary pressure: Tariffs can cool global growth, lifting demand for USD as a safe-haven.

Tariff retaliation risk: If affected nations respond, risk aversion may rise further — favoring DXY.

🔻 Bearish for Global Currencies (esp. Emerging Markets):
Currencies like MYR, KRW, ZAR could weaken.

Some pressure may spill over into EUR and JPY due to trade exposure.

7月7日

ノート

THE EUROPEAN UNION JUST SAID IT WILL NOT BE RECEIVING LETTER SETTING OUT HIGHER TARIFFS FROM THE UNITED STATES PER, Reuters

7月7日

ノート

📊 DXY Daily Chart — Elliott Wave + Fib Setup

The U.S. Dollar Index appears to have completed a textbook 5-wave structure, ending in a falling wedge (diagonal) at the confluence of trendline and Fib support (~96).

With Trump’s new tariffs and the Fed likely holding rates due to sticky inflation, USD strength is back on the table.

🚀 Recovery Targets:
– 50% Fib = ~103
– 61.8% Fib = ~105

If macro momentum builds, we could see these levels within weeks/months.