2024 AND BEYOND VISION
THE TIME IS NOW 12/31/2023, AND A NEW AGE WILL BE ENTERED AS 2024 IS THE YEAR OF 8 AND 8 BEING OPPORTUNITY AND ABUNDANCE. AS THE STARS SHIFT, SOME WILL SAY WE WILL ENTER AN AGE OF GREAT DESTRUCTION AND TRANSFORMATION, FOR I ALSO SEE THIS INCOMING.
As I have, I sat and stared at the charts with new eyes, I asked may the future be revealed. After some time passed, a vision was placed upon me. I started to see the market take for a great story unfolding. I will begin with the last major crash of 2008, also the year of 8. In 2008, there was a market crash caused by ASB. Surprisingly, the crash was fast and only lasted a month, and by the end of q1, the market had already recovered and made a measured TO a new high on mar9, setting the new trend high of the 4 y cycle and the 1st half. After this rally, due to the Fed injecting liquidity, it continued to crash the rest of the year. Now, I won't go into the story's details as I will focus on an observation only available through charts without any other knowledge, so let's begin.
Viewing it from a trading and algorithmic point, it is clear that 2008 had been shaping up from the 2006 rally down, where the market failed to make any meaningful measured move and also did not engineer liquidity as the rallies were short and usually discounted around 60-80% of its previous move but in the larger picture no buy-side liquidity was built. Looking at March 08, you can see a price stabilization at 71.
Which is a 4-point discount of the 04 cycle quarter move to 75. Once a premium discount had been established, the market began to engineer liquidity. Which was built for three months, mar-jun, the semi-turning point of q1. You can see a three-driver to force out sellers and build a sound position at a discount. After the market quickly took off, its first target was the 77.5-78 range, which this move would lock off the premium built at 75 and give traders room to load longer targets as the algorithm had set its limits. At the 78 level, it did a low 60% discount from the aug4, which broke the structure. And next, we see a significant rally to 88, which cleared liquidity 85-87. This was a clear sign that the market would continue to increase as the upside range was filled. From this trend high was an 80% discount. This is important as this is when the market shows its hands at wanting to make an algorithmic move to balance itself. All algorithmic moves will be 60-8-% depending on the size of the move. The larger the mover, the more significant the discount. from here, the same actions repeated from the September 22 low to the March 09 high. Again, an 80% discount can be seen as an algorithmic move. After this, the market collapsed again or, shall I say, corrected itself from the initial rally of 2008 as the previous 80% discount of 08 was only 60%. Simply put, the move was too significant for such a small and fast pullback and target. hence, if you measure the 2y cycle and range from 08, you will see
1. It overextended its 2-year cycle range of 15-18 points, grabbing 19 points, which can be viewed as an error from an algorithmic standpoint. Due to this, the market had to correct itself and erase gains that overly bullish traders once held.
Two the market again made an 80% discount of the 2y cycle.
We can see that before all big moves, or shall I say measured moves, the market looks for deep discounts that will entice traders to take the opposite position of the actual goal using the trader's funds as liquidity to make its programmed move and also take traders out the market as some traders might have got lucky in picking a top/bottom/ or holding position as we know only the 10% can win for they are the ones who have the money to move the market and are the ones who designed the algorithm. From here, we are at the Nov 23, 09 lows and swing. By now, we can see a clear pattern or seasonality. As traders call it, swings are usually made in q4 and the semi-half of q1 (march-may); historically, about 85% of all swings will fall within this target. from this low, we can see two measured moves to the upside first form75-80 as it is almost identical to its pattern from July-nov 09 price action and then 80-89 Mar '10
to 88.78, an 88% measured move and cancelation and complete correction of the 08-10 cycle as anciently all profits had been wiped out, and the market was resting at the same high or point it began the last cycle.
Here is where it gets interesting, as I believe this is the exact phase we are in in the 22- 24 and 20-24 cycles, as these are nearly identical.
taking a bird eye view approach, we can see that the 08 -12 cycle was two measured moves from form08-10, then an 88 discount from 10-12 to set up a 12-16 run. from q1 12 to q3 14, the market stayed in a range of 78-85. Note that this is also a 2-year cycle where liquidity has been built and never targeted. also, within this period of the 2y and over 4y 12-16 cycle, the market failed to make its corrective move, ultimately meaning the market never made a measured move, and from 2016, the market has been running on an error that it must fix within the next ten cycles to climb higher. in a broad, abstract view, you can see that the market pa is very similar to the 08 price action if you extend the move over four years. This means that the move that happened in 08-10, if it were to be stretched to 4 years of pa wo, would be similar to what we see from November 15 to the present. this is more than 4 years, but you can see the start of the 2016 measured move on November 15, so I used this. now, from the 12-20 cycle, we can see a clear 80% discount from 14-18 swings and a balancing measured move from 16 high to 18 low, filling its 2y cycle range. From there, 18-20 repeated its move from the previous cycle, filling half its 4y target of 25 points. this is part of why we have seen such a massive run-up in our current 4y cycle of 20-24. note that at the same time, 20-22 filled its range and also made a measured move of 15 points, which is perfect in the algorithmic sense. This gave the way for the market to run from 89/114, which is a 25-point move of a buy-side premium as 89 is the algorithmic sl of 75 (13-point spread) and algorithmic trigger and error as it ran 1 point above its spread but also gave an extreme discount for sellers at 100 level for the 10%. again, note that the high came in November, and the clear swing of 22 bottom fell into the time range I gave earlier. now, what does all this mean? the market is currently in a seller's algorithm as it has to correct its error from the 12-16 cycles, never making a measured move. It also aligns with a major market crash similar to the 08 crash based on its pa. Also, as seen in the pics attached below, you can see that the market has already begun to make measured moves to a lower target as the run-up from may-sep22 is almost identical to the sell side pa from sep22-jan22. This indicates that the seller is now in control, and the algorithm is ready to repeat its 2008 actions, as 08 is a sign of completion, and 23 is a sign of completion. This shows alignment within the natural order that the algorithm is based on. Along with this, the November 22- July 23 move has just been duplicated in a measured move of the July 23 low to the September 23 high of the year. Again, the swings are falling in line with its time target. now, remember I said we were in the 11 phases of the measured move. Now, if you go back to this time, you will see an uncanny resemblance of pa. and on the monthly time frame, you can see that 23 discounted 50% of its measured move of the sell side and filling its 15 points 2y range by discounting its 50% this will allow 24 to see lower targets as the profits have been taken out the market and now will be used to seek lower target. so we have a 50% discount of the measured move at the time target and pa resembling the 08-12 pa with 22-24 cycle having still 10n points to fill its 4y cycle range of 25 points, and we can see sales have been built and the premium of 113 has been locked out of target. this swing and pa is a clear sign that the algo is now looking for the ten targets and ultimately filling its buy-side discount of 100-85. this aligns perfectly with a simple fib retracement 618 of the 22-24 cycle, which would be a 60% discount. now, since the algo is shaping up its bias, what's one thing we know to be true? THE ALGO RUNS ON ERROR-CORRECTING CODE. this means that inevitably, the algo will have to drive the price down to the 12-16 levels and discount since it was never done. now, if we look at a larger measured move, we will see an 80% discount, giving a perfect 2y cycle discount at 100 of 95. this will allow buyers to get filled under 100 and trap sellers who think the floor has. this 95 target also has to align with the 10y 50 discount. I assume we will see this 95 target being reached by the end of 24 and, more precisely, around the beginning of the 2nd half. now, given the political tension around the world and the overall instability of the us market, this will not be a Nostradamus call as most traders have predicted a crash will come sometime between 24 and 25. I believe 24 will be the primer for a larger 24-28 cycle crash. but before we go lower, we go higher for shorter. I see a bullish run coming q1- until the semi-half set up, so ideally, I will probably want q1 to be overall bullish for the dollar. It only had two bullish weeks in 3 months, so it is not hard to see some relief in the excuse of the new year and hope being returned to the maker. Also, there has been a liquid trap set on the weekly as I believe this quick draw will be used to retrace to at least 50% of the volume, along with the fact that a bullish jefe has entered with a new moon in play all these factors shape up to mean that the dollar should run for a while, but now no major move as q1 is usually slow. the full 50% would be lined up perfectly with the weekly open at 104, allowing sellers to enter at a discount of 100 and build back in the sales they closed as a hedge back into their entry. I don't see it getting to 105, as this would constitute a continuation of a bullish trend, and I don't see the stars aligning in favor of the good old dollar. all in all, 2024 will be the DOOM OF THE DOLLAR. In my eyes, it will be interesting indeed as we are in very murky waters. I end by saying death to the enemy and destruction to the system. VICTOR IS OURS; WE SHALL WIN.
As I have, I sat and stared at the charts with new eyes, I asked may the future be revealed. After some time passed, a vision was placed upon me. I started to see the market take for a great story unfolding. I will begin with the last major crash of 2008, also the year of 8. In 2008, there was a market crash caused by ASB. Surprisingly, the crash was fast and only lasted a month, and by the end of q1, the market had already recovered and made a measured TO a new high on mar9, setting the new trend high of the 4 y cycle and the 1st half. After this rally, due to the Fed injecting liquidity, it continued to crash the rest of the year. Now, I won't go into the story's details as I will focus on an observation only available through charts without any other knowledge, so let's begin.
Viewing it from a trading and algorithmic point, it is clear that 2008 had been shaping up from the 2006 rally down, where the market failed to make any meaningful measured move and also did not engineer liquidity as the rallies were short and usually discounted around 60-80% of its previous move but in the larger picture no buy-side liquidity was built. Looking at March 08, you can see a price stabilization at 71.
Which is a 4-point discount of the 04 cycle quarter move to 75. Once a premium discount had been established, the market began to engineer liquidity. Which was built for three months, mar-jun, the semi-turning point of q1. You can see a three-driver to force out sellers and build a sound position at a discount. After the market quickly took off, its first target was the 77.5-78 range, which this move would lock off the premium built at 75 and give traders room to load longer targets as the algorithm had set its limits. At the 78 level, it did a low 60% discount from the aug4, which broke the structure. And next, we see a significant rally to 88, which cleared liquidity 85-87. This was a clear sign that the market would continue to increase as the upside range was filled. From this trend high was an 80% discount. This is important as this is when the market shows its hands at wanting to make an algorithmic move to balance itself. All algorithmic moves will be 60-8-% depending on the size of the move. The larger the mover, the more significant the discount. from here, the same actions repeated from the September 22 low to the March 09 high. Again, an 80% discount can be seen as an algorithmic move. After this, the market collapsed again or, shall I say, corrected itself from the initial rally of 2008 as the previous 80% discount of 08 was only 60%. Simply put, the move was too significant for such a small and fast pullback and target. hence, if you measure the 2y cycle and range from 08, you will see
1. It overextended its 2-year cycle range of 15-18 points, grabbing 19 points, which can be viewed as an error from an algorithmic standpoint. Due to this, the market had to correct itself and erase gains that overly bullish traders once held.
Two the market again made an 80% discount of the 2y cycle.
We can see that before all big moves, or shall I say measured moves, the market looks for deep discounts that will entice traders to take the opposite position of the actual goal using the trader's funds as liquidity to make its programmed move and also take traders out the market as some traders might have got lucky in picking a top/bottom/ or holding position as we know only the 10% can win for they are the ones who have the money to move the market and are the ones who designed the algorithm. From here, we are at the Nov 23, 09 lows and swing. By now, we can see a clear pattern or seasonality. As traders call it, swings are usually made in q4 and the semi-half of q1 (march-may); historically, about 85% of all swings will fall within this target. from this low, we can see two measured moves to the upside first form75-80 as it is almost identical to its pattern from July-nov 09 price action and then 80-89 Mar '10
to 88.78, an 88% measured move and cancelation and complete correction of the 08-10 cycle as anciently all profits had been wiped out, and the market was resting at the same high or point it began the last cycle.
Here is where it gets interesting, as I believe this is the exact phase we are in in the 22- 24 and 20-24 cycles, as these are nearly identical.
taking a bird eye view approach, we can see that the 08 -12 cycle was two measured moves from form08-10, then an 88 discount from 10-12 to set up a 12-16 run. from q1 12 to q3 14, the market stayed in a range of 78-85. Note that this is also a 2-year cycle where liquidity has been built and never targeted. also, within this period of the 2y and over 4y 12-16 cycle, the market failed to make its corrective move, ultimately meaning the market never made a measured move, and from 2016, the market has been running on an error that it must fix within the next ten cycles to climb higher. in a broad, abstract view, you can see that the market pa is very similar to the 08 price action if you extend the move over four years. This means that the move that happened in 08-10, if it were to be stretched to 4 years of pa wo, would be similar to what we see from November 15 to the present. this is more than 4 years, but you can see the start of the 2016 measured move on November 15, so I used this. now, from the 12-20 cycle, we can see a clear 80% discount from 14-18 swings and a balancing measured move from 16 high to 18 low, filling its 2y cycle range. From there, 18-20 repeated its move from the previous cycle, filling half its 4y target of 25 points. this is part of why we have seen such a massive run-up in our current 4y cycle of 20-24. note that at the same time, 20-22 filled its range and also made a measured move of 15 points, which is perfect in the algorithmic sense. This gave the way for the market to run from 89/114, which is a 25-point move of a buy-side premium as 89 is the algorithmic sl of 75 (13-point spread) and algorithmic trigger and error as it ran 1 point above its spread but also gave an extreme discount for sellers at 100 level for the 10%. again, note that the high came in November, and the clear swing of 22 bottom fell into the time range I gave earlier. now, what does all this mean? the market is currently in a seller's algorithm as it has to correct its error from the 12-16 cycles, never making a measured move. It also aligns with a major market crash similar to the 08 crash based on its pa. Also, as seen in the pics attached below, you can see that the market has already begun to make measured moves to a lower target as the run-up from may-sep22 is almost identical to the sell side pa from sep22-jan22. This indicates that the seller is now in control, and the algorithm is ready to repeat its 2008 actions, as 08 is a sign of completion, and 23 is a sign of completion. This shows alignment within the natural order that the algorithm is based on. Along with this, the November 22- July 23 move has just been duplicated in a measured move of the July 23 low to the September 23 high of the year. Again, the swings are falling in line with its time target. now, remember I said we were in the 11 phases of the measured move. Now, if you go back to this time, you will see an uncanny resemblance of pa. and on the monthly time frame, you can see that 23 discounted 50% of its measured move of the sell side and filling its 15 points 2y range by discounting its 50% this will allow 24 to see lower targets as the profits have been taken out the market and now will be used to seek lower target. so we have a 50% discount of the measured move at the time target and pa resembling the 08-12 pa with 22-24 cycle having still 10n points to fill its 4y cycle range of 25 points, and we can see sales have been built and the premium of 113 has been locked out of target. this swing and pa is a clear sign that the algo is now looking for the ten targets and ultimately filling its buy-side discount of 100-85. this aligns perfectly with a simple fib retracement 618 of the 22-24 cycle, which would be a 60% discount. now, since the algo is shaping up its bias, what's one thing we know to be true? THE ALGO RUNS ON ERROR-CORRECTING CODE. this means that inevitably, the algo will have to drive the price down to the 12-16 levels and discount since it was never done. now, if we look at a larger measured move, we will see an 80% discount, giving a perfect 2y cycle discount at 100 of 95. this will allow buyers to get filled under 100 and trap sellers who think the floor has. this 95 target also has to align with the 10y 50 discount. I assume we will see this 95 target being reached by the end of 24 and, more precisely, around the beginning of the 2nd half. now, given the political tension around the world and the overall instability of the us market, this will not be a Nostradamus call as most traders have predicted a crash will come sometime between 24 and 25. I believe 24 will be the primer for a larger 24-28 cycle crash. but before we go lower, we go higher for shorter. I see a bullish run coming q1- until the semi-half set up, so ideally, I will probably want q1 to be overall bullish for the dollar. It only had two bullish weeks in 3 months, so it is not hard to see some relief in the excuse of the new year and hope being returned to the maker. Also, there has been a liquid trap set on the weekly as I believe this quick draw will be used to retrace to at least 50% of the volume, along with the fact that a bullish jefe has entered with a new moon in play all these factors shape up to mean that the dollar should run for a while, but now no major move as q1 is usually slow. the full 50% would be lined up perfectly with the weekly open at 104, allowing sellers to enter at a discount of 100 and build back in the sales they closed as a hedge back into their entry. I don't see it getting to 105, as this would constitute a continuation of a bullish trend, and I don't see the stars aligning in favor of the good old dollar. all in all, 2024 will be the DOOM OF THE DOLLAR. In my eyes, it will be interesting indeed as we are in very murky waters. I end by saying death to the enemy and destruction to the system. VICTOR IS OURS; WE SHALL WIN.
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。