DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) — TECHNICALS FIRST, FUNDAMENTALS SECOND

Technically, the key level this week is 99.197. If DXY manages a bullish close above it, we should see a weekly structure shift higher. That opens the door for 99.8 → 101.5 as internal algorithmic targets. This isn’t wishful thinking — this is how systems behave when liquidity regimes flip.

Under that lens, any rejections beneath 99.197 or weak closes around it remain valid short setups — but only after structure gives the nod. Don’t force trades ahead of confirmation.

In the background, the dollar is reacting to trade-war rhetoric and political shifts. Trump’s 100 % tariffs on Chinese imports raised volatility, but he later softened his tone, suggesting more cooperation than conflict. Its complet currency war.

Meanwhile, some analysts argue a bullish case for the dollar remains due to relative U.S. productivity strength and higher real yields.

These narratives give motive, but do not override price structure.

So from CORE5’s frame: structure leads, news lags. Let clean price confirmation in the 99.197 zone tell you whether to lean into long bias or respect the risk of failure. Eyes locked.