ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Fri (Dec 12)

CONFIRMED EVENTS - FRI 12/12 (ET)
13:00 - Baker Hughes U.S. rig count
15:30 - CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) release (usual time)
Theme risk: liquidity headlines remain in play with the Fed starting reserve-management T-bill buying on 12/12 (not a data print, but worth respecting).

Market Analysis: Pre-Market Overview

As we approach the market open, the ES is currently positioned near the main pivot point at 6896.50 (Y-POC). Overnight trading saw a rise to the 6911.75-6912.50 range, but prices have since retraced back below a critical resistance zone at 6908.50-6909.25, which includes the year’s value area high (Y-VAH) and the previous day’s high (PDH). This dynamic suggests a cautious trading atmosphere characterized by “tight range first, trend second,” unless we witness a definitive reclaim above this resistance.

When ES gets this tight, it usually means liquidity is being packed for a pop (either direction). The trap is overtrading inside the middle of the box.

Right now the clean box is:
• Premium zone: 6900.75 then 6908.50-6909.25
• Bottom zone: 6892.00 then 6889.75

Key Resistance Levels:
- 6900.75: Asia session low
- 6908.50-6909.25: Significant resistance from Y-VAH and PDH
- 6911.75-6912.50: Upper threshold to watch
If buyers can maintain a position above 6909.25 for 15 minutes, it may set the stage for a rally towards 6922.25, aligning with prior closing levels.

Key Support Levels:
- 6892.00: London session low
- 6891.25: Overnight high
- 6884.75: Further potential support
- 6878.00: Continued downside target
- 6866.50: Year’s value area low (Y-VAL)
A decisive move below 6892.00 could trigger a morning pullback towards the 6884.75-6878.00 zone, with 6866.50 acting as a deeper support reference.


Today’s market activity will likely be influenced by developments in the semiconductor sector. Broadcom is placing pressure on the AI space due to concerns over margins, while Nvidia's outlook is being scrutinized in light of recent China-related headlines. Traders should brace for increased volatility around the 6900 and 6909 levels as movements in semiconductor stocks unfold.

The only significant intraday economic release scheduled is the Baker Hughes rig count, expected at 1:00 PM ET. Investors should also note that larger US economic data releases are anticipated next week, following a backlog caused by the recent government shutdown.

A++ SETUP 1 - REJECTION FADE (SHORT) from 6911.75-6915.50
15m pushes above 6911.75/6915.50 and closes back below 6909.25 - then 5m retest fails - then 1m first pullback gives LH.
Entry: 6909.75-6911.25
Hard SL: 6916.25 (above the rejection wick)
TP1: 6896.50
TP2: 6884.75
TP3: 6878.00

A++ SETUP 2 - ACCEPTANCE CONTINUATION (LONG) above 6922.25
15m full-body close above 6922.25 - then 5m pullback holds 6915.50-6911.75 and re-closes up - then 1m HL to enter.
Entry: 6916.00-6918.00 (on the hold)
Hard SL: 6908.25 (below the hold + back under PDH/Y-VAH area)
TP1: 6934.00
TP2: 6946.50
TP3: 6976.75

Good Luck