ES (SPX, SPY) Futures Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Wed, Oct 8

The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is currently exhibiting a primary uptrend on the higher timeframes while consolidating just below a significant resistance level between 6,785 and 6,795. As we approach the New York morning session, the prevailing expectation is for a range-to-trend expansion, dependent on whether the 6,758–6,795 range is broken. The 6,785–6,795 zone should be regarded as the immediate focal point for decision-making.

Event & Risk Calendar (ET)
• 07:00–07:15 — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly).
• 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release).
• 14:00 — FOMC Minutes (Sept 16–17 meeting). Expect volatility expansion on release.

A++ Setups (Tier-1, Level-KZ 15/5/1)

1. Trend-Continuation LONG at R1 break
Trigger: 15-minute full-body close above 6,795, 5-minute pullback holds 6,785–6,795, 1-minute higher-low confirms.
Entry: 6,788–6,795 on the retest/hold.
Invalidation: 15-minute body back below ~6,785.
Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825; TP2 6,858–6,866; TP3 6,898–6,905.
Risk: Hard SL = relevant 15-minute wick low −0.25–0.50 pts; take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level.

2. Rejection-Fade SHORT at R1 failure
Trigger: Probe into 6,785–6,795 fails: 15-minute rejection close back below, 5-minute lower-high forms, 1-minute pullback fails.
Entry: 6,785–6,792 on failure.
Invalidation: 15-minute body acceptance above ~6,795.
Targets: TP1 6,756–6,761; TP2 6,744–6,749; TP3 6,727–6,733.
Risk: Same management as Setup 1 (wick-anchored SL; 70/30 at TP1; max 2 attempts).