ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Fri (Oct 24)

ES Two-Way Plan (A++) — Level-KZ 15/5/1

Calendar (ET) — Fri Oct 24:
08:30 CPI (Sept).
09:45 S&P Global flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs.
10:00 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final).
14:00 Federal Reserve Board open meeting.
Expect compression into 08:30 → expansion on release; execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 only.

Bias & overnight→NY forecast:
Into CPI, lean range-bound 6,770–6,787. A clean hold above the “weak-high” pocket should squeeze toward the 1.272–1.618 extension band; failure back inside favors a drift to the breakout shelves below. Treat the first post-CPI impulse as discovery; take the next confirmed 15m/5m/1m sequence only.


Setups - Level-KZ execution (15m→5m→1m)
1) Short Rejection Fade @ 6,785–6,787 (W3): 15m rejection closes back inside → 5m re-close below ~6,783.5 with LH → enter first 1m pullback that stalls beneath the shelf.
SL: above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,759–6,762. TP3: 6,739–6,744.

2) Long Acceptance Continuation > 6,797 (W3): 15m full-body close above 6,797 → 5m pullback holds/re-closes → 1m HL entry.
SL: below the 15m trigger/pullback wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,818 (1.618). TP2: 6,830–6,835.

3) Long Quick-Reclaim Bounce @ 6,759–6,762 (W2): fast flush into the shelf → instant reclaim (15m wick, 5m re-close back above) → 1m HL entry.
SL: below the 15m flush wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,785–6,787.

4) Short Acceptance Breakdown < 6,759 (W2): 15m body-through below 6,759 → 5m confirms → 1m LH entry.
SL: above 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,739–6,744. TP2: 6,720–6,725.