S&P in EUR present Wyckoff distribution

2022年11月1日

S&P (in this chart ES futures) divided by EURUSD (in this chart Euro futures):
The whole of 2022 could be Wyckoff distribution, now entering Phase C, the shortest phase.

To confirm the pattern and continuation to phase D, look for:

• Fed hike less aggressively in 2023
  
• ECB hike more aggressively in 2023
  
• A move up in EUR (a move down in DXY)
  
• A move down in ES/SPY/SPX
  

ideally no later than the end of December.

Motivation:

• European investors are likely overweight US stocks in 2022.
  
• It is important to understand the price of S&P 500 in EURO as it is the cheaper currency to borrow.
  
• Macroeconomic trends suggest distribution rather than accumulation.
  

2022年12月15日

トレード稼働中

Phase C appears to have ended. Certainly so once the support line at 3700 is broken, marking the beginning of the active trading phase of this plan.

Final upthrust (UTAD) never manifested, instead it was a weak sideways pattern.

Phase D should inhabit the space between 3500 and 3700 as the ball gets rolling.