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ETH might have small ALT season? doesn't seem to be bight...
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Hey guys, welcome to my ALTs analysis (ETH - 18/05/20):
* Fundamentals
- As many of you know, I'm not a big fan of ALTs as my speculation is that they will die (99% of them) out slowly and painfully (With maybe small ALT seasons in between), only rare few will survive... ETH might be one of them because after all he is the prince? or something like that... ETH is in big risk for the next few years, why? it doesn't really provide anything new...
1. While BTC does stand to its purpose and slowly getting more and more attention and use-case as an alternative to national currencies and thus aspires to be a medium of exchange and store of value (Which by the way, as I showed on my Telegram, is the only thing out there which I can think of as pure un-inflational asset, more then gold, while ALTs are inflation to BTC) - Fundamentals are still high on this (Despite the slow down on technology)
2. ETH was mostly intended as a platform to facilitate immutable, programmatic contracts, and applications via its own currency, and guess what? it fails, 99% of it turned to be without real use-case, which actually kills ETH value slowly slowly, there is no real use case for ETH if its main purpose fails, this is why this should not be considered as long term investment. sure it might survive and struggle to stay around, but I don't see it playing a main roll on the next parabolic run together with BTC... the next gen programmatic contracts and application via its own currency would be not ICOs, it would be IPOs, because while ICOs harm a growth of economy, IPOs only contribute to it.
* That said, I think the sentimental for ETH are also pretty bad:
- As more and more people afraid from their ALT holdings to die out slowly in the echo system, and as more and more ALTs getting a beat up and bleeding out.
sure we have had some small ALT seasons compared to BTC, but they all continued to fall to lower lows right after, and it doesn't seem like they are recovering, for real money to enter to ETH, people need to hedge it against BTC, but for that to happen we need "fuel", to get that fuel we need the next phase of BTC parabolic run, else? most of the ALTs on the next fall are going to be under ATL levels (As most of them are really close to it already), I think that sentimentally most volume from the hyped people/retail who entered the echo system to get rich at 2017 kinda died out already, and they just keep holding as a sign for hope.. meanwhile all we see is sellers who want to get rid of their begs, and every rally for ALT season ends up in emptying the profits...
- The net longs vs net shorts ratio is around the 6.61, longs are coming in 2x-1.5x every month, THIS IS CRAZY!!!! this is the liquidity needed to push the market down to ATHs.... people didn't see real blood just yet, I guess when we will see ATHs we will start seeing heavy shorters coming in.
* That said, lets do some basic TA:
- Weekly looks bad and very bearish:
as we are right under that weekly e21 (red line), and also right below the weekly cloud. a rejection while BTC is falling could mean that ETH is going for the most critical S/R it had since 2016:
If ETH closes the daily above 0.22 today, it should continue towards 0.228 (Which is also inside the weekly cloud)... and if we close above it then a small ALT season is on its path.
- For ETH to have a small bullish move (And small ALT season), BTC should start going into small correction / consolidation phase.
- If BTC will crush, then the entire market will crush, but in overall, I expect ETH to do some bold moves if it wants to survive.
- And if BTC starts the real bull run, then it won't leave much room for ALTs, it will drain them but will give them small ALT seasons between the corrections.
* I personally don't trade much ALTs, because the risk is too big, but if I were to enter then my SL would be around 0.0209...
for people like me who are bearish on BTC, then ETH should be a good place to hedge against it (But only for hedging, not as investment).
if you are bullish on ETH, then don't go too greedy on it, make profits count! and make sure you check the bigger picture as well...
I hope you enjoyed my overview :)
Many asked me to do this analysis, so here you go.
If you want me to do an analysis on any coin there, let me know, I will start picking different choices from time to time.
* Fundamentals
- As many of you know, I'm not a big fan of ALTs as my speculation is that they will die (99% of them) out slowly and painfully (With maybe small ALT seasons in between), only rare few will survive... ETH might be one of them because after all he is the prince? or something like that... ETH is in big risk for the next few years, why? it doesn't really provide anything new...
1. While BTC does stand to its purpose and slowly getting more and more attention and use-case as an alternative to national currencies and thus aspires to be a medium of exchange and store of value (Which by the way, as I showed on my Telegram, is the only thing out there which I can think of as pure un-inflational asset, more then gold, while ALTs are inflation to BTC) - Fundamentals are still high on this (Despite the slow down on technology)
2. ETH was mostly intended as a platform to facilitate immutable, programmatic contracts, and applications via its own currency, and guess what? it fails, 99% of it turned to be without real use-case, which actually kills ETH value slowly slowly, there is no real use case for ETH if its main purpose fails, this is why this should not be considered as long term investment. sure it might survive and struggle to stay around, but I don't see it playing a main roll on the next parabolic run together with BTC... the next gen programmatic contracts and application via its own currency would be not ICOs, it would be IPOs, because while ICOs harm a growth of economy, IPOs only contribute to it.
* That said, I think the sentimental for ETH are also pretty bad:
- As more and more people afraid from their ALT holdings to die out slowly in the echo system, and as more and more ALTs getting a beat up and bleeding out.
sure we have had some small ALT seasons compared to BTC, but they all continued to fall to lower lows right after, and it doesn't seem like they are recovering, for real money to enter to ETH, people need to hedge it against BTC, but for that to happen we need "fuel", to get that fuel we need the next phase of BTC parabolic run, else? most of the ALTs on the next fall are going to be under ATL levels (As most of them are really close to it already), I think that sentimentally most volume from the hyped people/retail who entered the echo system to get rich at 2017 kinda died out already, and they just keep holding as a sign for hope.. meanwhile all we see is sellers who want to get rid of their begs, and every rally for ALT season ends up in emptying the profits...
- The net longs vs net shorts ratio is around the 6.61, longs are coming in 2x-1.5x every month, THIS IS CRAZY!!!! this is the liquidity needed to push the market down to ATHs.... people didn't see real blood just yet, I guess when we will see ATHs we will start seeing heavy shorters coming in.
* That said, lets do some basic TA:
- Weekly looks bad and very bearish:
as we are right under that weekly e21 (red line), and also right below the weekly cloud. a rejection while BTC is falling could mean that ETH is going for the most critical S/R it had since 2016:
If ETH closes the daily above 0.22 today, it should continue towards 0.228 (Which is also inside the weekly cloud)... and if we close above it then a small ALT season is on its path.
- For ETH to have a small bullish move (And small ALT season), BTC should start going into small correction / consolidation phase.
- If BTC will crush, then the entire market will crush, but in overall, I expect ETH to do some bold moves if it wants to survive.
- And if BTC starts the real bull run, then it won't leave much room for ALTs, it will drain them but will give them small ALT seasons between the corrections.
* I personally don't trade much ALTs, because the risk is too big, but if I were to enter then my SL would be around 0.0209...
for people like me who are bearish on BTC, then ETH should be a good place to hedge against it (But only for hedging, not as investment).
if you are bullish on ETH, then don't go too greedy on it, make profits count! and make sure you check the bigger picture as well...
I hope you enjoyed my overview :)
Many asked me to do this analysis, so here you go.
If you want me to do an analysis on any coin there, let me know, I will start picking different choices from time to time.
ノート
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