An inverse cup and handle or a double bottom?

The chart is in a downtrend sitting on big support, and we have sketched the two obvious branching paths.

Where we are now

• Price ~3.2k, below the 9/21/50/100/150/200-day MAs but sitting on the 300–400-day cluster around 3.05–3.10k.
  
• That zone also matches the previous summer range = strong structural support.
  
• Trend is still clearly down until at least the 200-day (~3.45k) is reclaimed.
  

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Bull case – double bottom

The green double bottom is basically

• Lows: ~3.05k–3.10k (twice).
  
• Neckline: the swing high between them, roughly ~3.5–3.6k.
  

For this to be “real” we want:

• decisive daily close above ~3.5–3.6k with volume.
  
• Ideally 200-day MA reclaimed and flattening.
  

If that happens, measured move targets land somewhere in the mid-4ks, which lines up with your big green arrow.

Subjective odds right now: lower, maybe ~40% until that neckline breaks. We're trying to fight the prevailing downtrend; the pattern is only a potential bottom.

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Bear case – inverse cup / rounded top

The red “inverse cup and handle” is basically a big rounded top since August

• Series of lower highs, price rejected by falling MAs.
  
• Current bounce is so far just a retest of that declining structure / MA cluster from below.
  

Bearish resolution would be

• Failure somewhere under ~3.5k.
  
• Breakdown below 3.0–3.05k (loss of 300–400-day MAs and range support).
  
• That opens a move to the mid-2ks or worse, which is your red arrow scenario.
  

Given the existing downtrend and overhead MA gravity, continuation has the edge for now—call it ~60% vs the bullish reversal, unless the neckline is reclaimed.

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Net take

• Above ~3.6k with volume → double bottom validated, trend potentially flips up.
  
• Below ~3.0k with conviction → rounded-top breakdown, expect acceleration down.
  
• In between 3.0–3.6k you’re in Schrödinger’s pattern: chop, fakeouts, and pain.
  

So the market is basically asking: “Do we defend the 3k fortress, or do the MAs slowly grind everyone down?” The chart slightly favors the bears until price proves otherwise.