let's talk about MACD

2018年7月17日

Ending diagonal often mark the end of the trend
Ending diagonal often correct to at least fib 0.5

As price printed lower low, macd has been printing higher low, 3 times, one touch for every subwave
This shows how long "bullish divergence" can keep on going without producing a reversal.
It also confirm the diagonal triangle, in which subwave 3 and 5 are meant to have smaller target

Price action broke out of the diagonal in wave 1 and tested the upper line of the diagonal in wave 2
Producing a fourth higher low on MACD

Current wave i, has finally broke out above previous high on MACD and has now confirm that entire serie of divergence as a reversal.

So now the target for wave ii, should ideally leave macd in the positive and even better, not return under the upper black line.
That leave us, with either a sharp or short wave ii
Blue box would be best

The minimum target coming up next is fib 0.5 of the diagonal, then fib 0.5 of the abc.

2018年7月17日

ノート

for anyone interested in detailed EW count of the move.
Since yesterday wave iv has corrected in the territory of wave ((iv)), could go as low low as (iv) before starting v

2018年7月17日

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more accurate targets :

blue line should be our support now

2018年7月18日

ノート

ETH is showing a different picture than BTC
There is a neat looking 5 wave structure
It does look complete

BUT it's definitly not wave 3 (it's way too short)
The second most obvious choice is the one above, in which case we could go as low as the second blue line
There is a last option with wave i completed one high prior to the left

Which ever count, i think ETH next move will be higher in proportion than what we'll see on BTC

last thing, eth doesn't have the same HNS formation as BTC, there isn't that much of a clear support and the second blue line is a real possibility if the first one breaks

2018年7月20日

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count above was definitly the right one
could go as low as 440 now that we breach the second blue line
but for some reason (higher low on macd, hidden bullish divergence on RSI), i'd favor a sideway scenario from here

2018年7月21日

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we have some positive sign of a bottom at 440
we can see an impulse developing since then
We have a macd read of wave iii
Which also confirm the macd divergence of the bottom by printing a higher high
Stochastic hint at this move nearing a retrace, so not the best time to enter, unless we end up closing above the resistance in red at 470
RSI shows similar picture, hidden bearish divergence, but there is also more room to the upside

if price get rejected at the red line, the retrace would go toward the blue line, this is my favorite scenario
But i also like what i'm seeing on ETH, and i'm not sure if it's worth it to wait for the perfect entry to fully enter a long, I might partially enter now in case price shoots up.

2018年7月22日

ノート

getting near blue target, i still think it should bounce from there

2018年7月23日

ノート

eth is gliding out of the blue box of the original chart
a move seem imminent,
once 470 breaks ...

2018年7月24日

ノート

seems like one of reason why ETH has been lagging is because it's been traded to accumulate alts...

if you look at most alt coin, there has been sell wall on btc to hold prices down
meanwhile the volume was higher on Eth pairs with some actual buying happening
with Btc near correction point, and Eth looking higher
i'm expecting those sell wall to disappear and btc holder to soon take profit in alts
which would in result free Eth and allow it to go higher while btc retrace or stagnate
the next 48h should show more signs of this

if anyone wants to know, alts/btc that i cannot chart but look like a good buy : etn (entry at 0.00000155 tp at 0.0000033) and elix (entry at 0.0000279 profit at 0.000063)
covesting (entry 0.00011 not sure target) and loci (not sure if it will but entry 0.000011 target 0.000025) are two that need to correct first
And for the top 10, i favor iota above ada
I'm obviously invested in those so take my word as carefully as you should.