ETHUSD Perspective And Levels:Triangle Breaks. More Uncertainty.

2017年7月25日

ETHUSD Update: Triangle is broken by weakness and minor supports taken out. The 183 to 163 support zone is the next area I will be looking for reversal patterns to buy back in.

The 214 area support which is the .382 of the recent upswing has been compromised which indicates that the bullish momentum generated from the 136 low is not driving this market at the moment and further consolidation is likely.

My long from 228 was stopped out for a small loss at 207. Small losses are the best losses. I was never able to justify adding at 224, and this is exactly the reason why I do not place blind limit orders in the market at a predetermined support. I wait for validation, which helps me to more often than not avoid support breaks like the 224 level. So what's next?

The BTC drama has created too much uncertainty around the hard fork that is now happening on 8/1. To make matters more uncertain, brokers like Coinbase are giving account holders a hard time with withdrawals and web articles are warning participants to find out what their third party key holders are going to do about the hard fork. With August 1st being only a week away, I expect fear and volume to get worse. Think about it, do you think a sane person will have the confidence to put on a large position right now. Would you?

On that note, this price action is not overly bearish. It is just weak enough to force out weak hands. The next area of actionable support is the 183 to 163 zone which is related to the .618 of the recent upswing off of the 136 low. I will look to buy upon smaller time frame reversals within that zone ONLY, even if they appear before 8/1, but I will compensate for the uncertainty by once again going in with only 10% of my usual size.

If price falls below 163, I will hold off on any buying and reevaluate because that would indicate a much weaker market. Also I will not buy any reversals unless they now appear within the support zone mentioned above. In my opinion, in this low volume environment, there are going to be too many false breakouts, and price action tends to be much more random. Best way to navigate it is to stay out. So if I am going to take a risk, it has to be at very attractive prices, and structure.

In summary, this minor support break is NOT extremely bearish, just a shake of the weak hands. Low volume and high uncertainty keep this market (and BTC) from making progress and I expect these conditions to continue until participants gain more certainty on 8/1 (and exchanges like Coinbase stop scaring people with withdrawal problems). If very attractive supports are reached like the zone mentioned earlier, I will be open to buying again, as long as the rules of my trading plan are met.

Comments and questions welcome.