ショート

Flash PMI not enough to turn weak EU growth

アップデート済

PMI release risk was realised and markets traded on little optimism from a positive PMI despite overall indications of weak growth in EU.

Can see long position holders taking profit at an extension level at around 1.74 for this pair.

3 core primary risk event for EUR:
1. G20
2. Next UK PM sentiment for Brexit
3. Next ECB replacement (of the 4 likely candidates, 2 hawkisk and 2 dovish)

Technicals is one thing - market consensus another - the goal of technical analysis is to identify key prices in line of market expectations. Key to any NZD crosses is risk sentiment. If market off risk = bullish NZD and vice versa

I'm still net bearish outlook for this pair and looking for entry for a short as jumps from Flash PMI gets exhausted

ノート

G20 is a critical risk event for NZD coming up. Upside risk to be expected as complete truce to the trade war rhetoric is needed to dispel bearish bias on NZD.

Needs to be noted that RBA speech Monday will likely have what I call 'peripheral drag' to the Kiwi. Market would be looking for further validation of forward guidance of RBA rate cuts from Lowe's speech. A short term revival of residential sales and listings and up tick in housing would prove to be a potential boon for the economy. However structural constraints of stagnant wage growth could still weigh on consumer spending until the cuts are made and fiscal policy (tax cuts and government support to first home buyers) start to kick in towards end of 2019.

ノート

Expecting EURNZD to maintain upward trend albeit at a slower rate. Should see a rounding off in gradient of trend as bulls target 1.74 area.