ロング

Unlucky week, ECB decision and contango in the oil market

For many (at least for buyers in the US stock market and in the oil market), the current week has not been the most successful. But as is often the case, one thing follows the other. Looks like the fall in US stock indices and Trump's threats were not enough.

This time, India and China contributed to the creation of the most gloomy fundamental backdrop. Sides have already moved on to fire clashes on the disputed border. In addition, AstraZeneca (the leader of the global vaccine race) has suspended the third phase of trials around the world due to an adverse reaction in one of the participants in the United Kingdom.

Today the unemployment data in the US may continue the losing streak. In addition, the ECB may surprise the markets with its economic outlook, as well as with the comments on euro exchange rate.

Traditionally, Brexit negotiations have been tough. Since the sides have reached the home stretch, the rates have been increased as much as possible and everyone is waiting for someone to sit out. Markets are increasingly being discounted for a possible failure, which naturally puts pressure on the British pound.

And if the hopes of buyers of the pound are that the sides will agree, then in the oil market they are more likely associated with the differential between spot and futures prices, which indicates the presence of contango (the price of an oil futures is higher than the current price on the market), which means , the prospects for earnings on oil storage are opening up. This may provide some support to oil prices.