Trying to apply a little OTE combined with Key Support and Resistance levels.
IF the price can reach back to the 62-76% Fib around 1.2455, the odds are in our favour to see a break of July 2012's low, considering ongoing downward momentum.
Also, a move to June 2010 low from the July 2012 would be of exactly the same magnitude of the 1.2530-1.2286 move, confirming the June 2010 low as a new Key Resistance.